Key Message Update

More countries declare a state of disaster due to drought

February 2016

February - May 2016

Southern Africa February 2016 Food Security Projections for February to May

June - September 2016

Southern Africa February 2016 Food Security Projections for June to September

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Despite increased rainfall in southern parts of the region in January, most of the region continues to experience dryness into February, diminishing any hopes of crop recovery. The El Niño-induced drought is expected to result in below-average 2016 production in most of the region, including the top maize surplus-producing countries, South Africa and Zambia. 

  • The region is facing one of the worst peak lean season periods. Due to the poor start of the seasonal rains and lack of moisture, the start of the green harvest across most of the region has been delayed until mid-March. Green harvests normally improve food availability in February, but households in several countries will not have access to green foods due to the drought conditions.

  • Food access and availability will continue to be limited after the 2016 harvest in May/June due to complete crop failure in many areas, below-average labor availability, as well as higher than normal food prices. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity is expected in Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe during the outlook period. Beyond September, food insecurity is expected to deteriorate further across the region. Regional needs are expected to be well-above average this consumption year.

  • Food security assessments by several National Vulnerability Assessment Committees are still ongoing. The governments of Zimbabwe, Swaziland, and Lesotho have declared a state of disaster and are seeking assistance in order to meet the increasing food needs caused by the drought.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics