Key Message Update

Household food security expected to improve with prospects of improved harvests region wide

April 2017

April - May 2017

Southern Africa April 2017 Food Security Projections for April to May

June - September 2017

Southern Africa April 2017 Food Security Projections for June to September

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • March marks the peak of the lean season across many countries impacted by last year’s El Niño induced drought. During this month, several areas are experiencing food consumption gaps and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Countries with areas receiving consistent supplies of humanitarian assistance have improved and are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) because of ongoing assistance. Acute food insecurity outcomes are expected to start improving as areas begin accessing the green harvest and by May, most areas will likely be experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes as households begin consuming their own production. However, parts of the DRC will likely be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to the impact of drought conditions and conflict on agricultural activities this season. 

  • In previous years rains usually tailed off in early March, however this year the region experienced an continuation of rainfall beyond this period.  This extension of rainfall will benefit late planted crops, but there are also growing concerns that the later than normal rains will result in cob rot for early planted crops and could increase post-harvest losses. 

  • Maize prices remain above average across the region. Malawi and Mozambique did record a monthly decrease of 12 and 63 percent, respectively, but prices remain close to 100 percent higher than average. The decline is mainly attributed to improved market supply and prospects of an improved main harvest. Grain traders are also focused on  offloading old stocks before the new harvest since demand will significantly decrease and effect their profit margins. Significant decreases in staple prices across most of the region are expected with the improved harvests in May. 

  • As farmers prepare for the winter cropping, concerns over the fall armyworm (FAW) infestations remain high in the region. Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, and South Africa normally plant wheat and maize during the off-season. In the absence of any FAW control measures and monitoring, these crops are likely to be vulnerable to the pest. Experience from other regions like South America suggests that a high concentration of FAW on the smaller pieces of land cultivated for winter cropping could be devastated. Such attacks could potentially reduce production prospects for the second season along with casual labor opportunities.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics