Declining imports into Al Hudaydah port drive concerns about future food supplies

Yemen continues to face the largest food security emergency in the world, with large populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity, the latter of which is associated with an increased risk of excess mortality. IDP populations and poor households in conflict zones are likely facing the most severe food security outcomes.

Recent food import data suggest that food imports into Al Hudaydah port have recently declined sharply. As this port supplies many key markets in western Yemen, these declining imports raise concerns about future supply levels and food prices at markets that rely on this port as a source.

Large-scale humanitarian assistance has likely played an important role in limiting food insecurity outcomes to Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) in several governorates, instead of Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Should the macroeconomic situation and conflict continue at similar levels, and should humanitarian assistance provision not be maintained or scaled-up in the near- to medium-term, food security outcomes are likely to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) for many areas across western Yemen by September 2017.

Given the fluid nature of the conflict in Yemen, food security outcomes are difficult to project. In a worst-case scenario, there are possible events that could cause a severe deterioration in food consumption, malnutrition, and excess mortality for much larger populations, driving outcomes in line with Famine (IPC Phase 5). Possible scenarios that could drive these types of severe outcomes include, but are not limited to: 1) a significant decline in commercial staple food imports below requirement levels, or 2) a major increase in conflict levels or change in conflict location that cuts off populations from trade and humanitarian assistance for an extended period of time.