Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• Below-average 2015/16 harvests, higher than usual staple food prices, and poor pasture conditions are likely to result in a higher than usual number of food insecure people in Sudan during the March/April to September lean season. About 20 to 25 percent of the IDPs and poor households in SPLM-N areas and new IDPs in the Darfur states who do not receive humanitarian food assistance are likely to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) during the same time period. 

• Increased conflict has displaced approximately 130,000 people from the Jebel Marra area since mid-January 2016, including about 27,000 people in March. Most newly displaced households are located in North Darfur and have lost access to household stocks, productive assets, and normal income-earning opportunities. Most of these are households are receiving some assistance, and are therefore in Crisis (IPC Phase 3!). However, households hiding in mountaintop areas of Central Darfur and East Jebel Marra in South Darfur are inaccessible to humanitarian assistance agencies, and are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). 

• Sorghum and millet prices increased unseasonably by 10 to 25 percent in most markets of Sudan between January and February 2016, driven by reduced market supplies following below-average 2015/16 production associated with El Niño and by increased demand from neighboring countries. In February 2016, sorghum prices were about 15 to 45 percent higher than at the same time last year. As market supplies tighten further and households begin to exhaust stocks in March/April 2016, further rapid prices increase of prices are highly expected.

• Livestock prices decreased slightly on most markets in Sudan between January and February. This was mainly due to unfavorable pasture conditions in main grazing areas and extremely high fodder prices this year, which have led to increased sales of livestock. Although the opening the border with South Sudan is likely to facilitate the migration of animals to summer grazing areas, atypical increases in cereal prices from March to September 2016 will continue to reduce terms-of-trade between livestock and cereals. 

• In contested areas of South Kordofan, conflict is expected to increase during the summer months and to further disrupt livelihoods and markets, and to trigger additional displacement. Food insecurity situation among IDPs and poor resident households in SPLM-N controlled areas is likely to further deteriorate from Crisis level (IPC Phase 3) to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) by March/April through September 2016.