Seasonal Monitor

Deyr rains subsided in most parts of the country in mid-October

October 22, 2014

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Summary

Both satellite and ground information reports show that the Deyr rains subsided between October 11 and October 20 in most parts of the country. Localized light showers to moderate rains with poor spatial and temporal distribution fell in parts of the Northwest, the Northeast, the central regions, and parts of southern regions (Figure 1). The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for October 11 to 20 shows that rain fell in most areas of the North, the central regions, and most of the southern regions including Gedo, Middle and Lower Juba, Bay, Middle and Lower Shabelle, and Hiraan Regions, but rainfall was 10 to 50 millimeters (mm) below the 2000 to 2013 average (Figure 2).

Situation

In the Northwest, localized light to moderate rains were received in between October 11 and 20. Poorly distributed, localized rains were received in the Nugal Valley, East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone, and the Sool Plateau in Sanaag Region. However, light to moderate rains with normal distribution were received across Sool Region. Togdheer Agropastoral, Hawd Pastoral, and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones in Togdheer Region received light to moderate rains with poor spatial distribution. Guban Pastoral and West Golis Pastoral received no rains as is typical for this time of year as cooler weather resumed after some unusual rains in early October. The rains supported rangeland regeneration and allowed the establishment of pasture grasses.

In the Northeast, most areas received light to moderate rains, but in Bader-beyla and Alula Districts in the Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari Region, there was no rain. Iskushuban and Qardho Districts in Karkaar-Dharoor Pastoral livelihood zone received light showers, but Bossaso District remained dry. Hawd, Addun, and Nugal Valley Pastoral livelihood zones in northern Mudug and Nugal Regions received average rains with normal spatial distribution. The Sool Plateau in Bari Region received three days of moderate rainfall.

In the central regions, light showers were received in Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone and adjacent parts of the cowpea belt. Heavier rain fell in Addun Pastoral livelihood zone and adjacent areas of the cowpea belt in Galgaduud and Mudug Regions. Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone in the central regions also received near average amounts of rain. Generally, these rains supported the standing cowpea crops and pasture growth.

In the South, most agropastoral and pastoral areas received only light showers or no rain. Light showers were received in pockets in northern Gedo, but the rest of the region remained dry. In Hiraan, light showers fell in pockets. In Lower Shabelle, only the agropastoral area in Wanlaweyne District received moderate rainfall, and almost all of the rest of the region remained dry. However, moderate rains fell in most parts of Middle Shabelle Region outside of Balad District that did not receive any rain. In Lower Juba, Afmadow District received three days of rain while the rest of the region remained dry. Some pockets of Middle Juba received some very light, insignificant showers. Moderate rains with typical spatial and temporal distribution were received in most parts of Bakool and Bay Regions. Rain gauges in Baidoa, Bardale, Dinsor, and Qansaxdheere in Bay Region recorded 76 mm, 11 mm, 14 mm, and 67.5 mm with four, two, four, and two rainy days, respectively.

The current satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows improved pasture conditions in most pastoral areas in the North, but below-average vegetation conditions still persist in most parts of the South (Figure 3). The two-week precipitation forecast for October 23 to November 5 indicates there will be rainfall between 10 mm to 75 mm in most parts of the country. Heavy rains are expected in Sool and Sanaag Regions in the North, and in Bakool, Bay, Gedo, and Hiraan Regions in the South (Figure 4). Both the Shabelle and Juba Rivers are rising, and there is a moderate risk of flooding due to both heavy precipitation forecast in the country and recent, heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands.

For more rain gauge data, please, contact Hydro@faoswalim.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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