Key Message Update

Pastoral areas to experience worst food insecurity outcomes as the dry season progresses

January 2017

January 2017

Kenya January 2017 Food Security Projections for January

February - May 2017

Kenya January 2017 Food Security Projections for February to May

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Most of the pastoral areas are experiencing atypical pasture and water stress, adversely affecting livestock productivity and household incomes. An intensification of coping strategies, such as reducing food intake, skipping meals, and livestock destocking, are currently supporting household food access and consumption. The majority of pastoral households remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), while a sizeable, and increasing proportion of households continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Garissa, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, and Mandera. Current ongoing humanitarian interventions, especially across pastoral areas, are likely positively impacting food insecurity outcomes. 

  • Near total maize crop failure is expected in the southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas, following the poor short rains and early cessation. Also, the leguminous crop harvest is expected to be up to 60 and 80 percent below average in southeastern and coastal marginal areas, respectively. Most households have increased their search for non-farm labor opportunities, reduced their portions and/or skipped meals, and sold livestock to support food consumption as their incomes have significantly declined due to the failed season. Most areas remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 

  • Prevailing hotter-than-normal land surface temperatures (plus two to three degrees Celsius above normal) have accelerated forage and water depletion across most of the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas. This is expected to continue and will exacerbate conditions with the forecast for below-average March to May long rains in both bimodal and unimodal areas.  

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics