Key Message Update

Food security improves following above-average short rains

January 2016
2015-Q4-3-2-KE-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Most households in western areas and Rift Valley are maintaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity following the October to January long rains harvest, which has increased market supplies and household food stocks and helped stabilize market prices. The harvest is estimated to be approximately 10 percent above the five-year average.  

  • In pastoral areas, above-average short rains, driven in part by the ongoing El Niño, led to the seasonal recovery of rangeland resources, increasing livestock productivity. With pasture available near homesteads, few livestock have migrated and households have access to milk, improving food security. Some households have improved to None (IPC Phase 1), although many households remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). No significant deterioration in food security is expected during the January to March dry season. 

  • In the southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas, the above-average short rains is likely to result in an average to above-average February/March harvest, further supporting household food security. However, below-average harvests are expected in isolated pockets of Makueni, Taita Taveta, and Kwale that received below-average rainfall. The majority of households are expected to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through March. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics