Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Since November 2020, conflict and insecurity in northern Ethiopia have driven large-scale displacement, significantly disrupted poor households’ engagement in livelihood activities, and limited humanitarian access, with the impacts most stark in Tigray.

Current Observations

According to OCHA, while a third convoy arrived in Tigray in late April, due to some improvement in humanitarian access, available resources are minimal compared to the scale of need. 

Reason for Concern

A third consecutive below-average rainfall season in late 2021 led to significant crop and livestock losses, alongside water shortages and sharply rising staple food prices. A forecast of a fourth below-average season in early 2022 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access.

Current Observations

As of late April, the gu/long rains were 40-70% below average in many parts of the Horn. In drought-affected areas, acute malnutrition case admissions are 15-50% higher than last year.

Reason for Concern

Political and intercommunal conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. Recurrent, extensive floods since 2019 have further eroded household food and income sources. Poor macroeconomic conditions also exacerbate low access to food.

Current Observations

Sporadic clashes between armed groups, attacks against civilians, and generalized insecurity are worsening the severity of food insecurity in parts of Unity, Jonglei, Warrap, Upper Nile, and Greater Equatoria.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Multiple cyclone and tropical storm strikes across the island have caused crop and infrastructure damage. Meanwhile, severe drought conditions continue, especially in the southwest.

Current Observations

The late onset of rainfall caused delays in plantings that are now extending the annual lean season, especially in the southwest. Crop damage from the storms is still being assessed.

Reason for Concern

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain significantly above average and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Current Observations

Conflict has reduced during a two-month ceasefire, though ground conflict continues. In areas controlled by the Sana’a-based authorities, fuel supply and prices have improved significantly.

Reason for Concern

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 1.8 million people are displaced throughout the region. 

Current Observations

Atypically high staple food prices persist across the region. In Burkina Faso, staple food prices have hit record prices in many markets, with prices of maize, millet, and sorghum reaching about 60 percent above average.

Reason for Concern

Although conflict has somewhat decreased in the Northeast, concern remains high as years of insecurity have eroded livelihoods. In the Northwest and Northcentral, conflict is expected to be high, driving further displacement. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain poor households’ purchasing power. 

Current Observations

High transportation costs, driven by fuel shortages and subsequent price increases, coupled with high global food prices related to the Ukraine crisis, are putting pressure on food prices. Food prices remain significantly above average and last year.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Northern Ethiopia

Since November 2020, conflict and insecurity in northern Ethiopia have driven large-scale displacement, significantly disrupted poor households’ engagement in livelihood activities, and limited humanitarian access, with the impacts most stark in Tigray.

According to OCHA, while a third convoy arrived in Tigray in late April, due to some improvement in humanitarian access, available resources are minimal compared to the scale of need. 

Horn of Africa

A third consecutive below-average rainfall season in late 2021 led to significant crop and livestock losses, alongside water shortages and sharply rising staple food prices. A forecast of a fourth below-average season in early 2022 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access.

As of late April, the gu/long rains were 40-70% below average in many parts of the Horn. In drought-affected areas, acute malnutrition case admissions are 15-50% higher than last year.

South Sudan

Political and intercommunal conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. Recurrent, extensive floods since 2019 have further eroded household food and income sources. Poor macroeconomic conditions also exacerbate low access to food.

Sporadic clashes between armed groups, attacks against civilians, and generalized insecurity are worsening the severity of food insecurity in parts of Unity, Jonglei, Warrap, Upper Nile, and Greater Equatoria.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Southern Madagascar

Multiple cyclone and tropical storm strikes across the island have caused crop and infrastructure damage. Meanwhile, severe drought conditions continue, especially in the southwest.

The late onset of rainfall caused delays in plantings that are now extending the annual lean season, especially in the southwest. Crop damage from the storms is still being assessed.

Yemen

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain significantly above average and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Conflict has reduced during a two-month ceasefire, though ground conflict continues. In areas controlled by the Sana’a-based authorities, fuel supply and prices have improved significantly.

Bordering areas of Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 1.8 million people are displaced throughout the region. 

Atypically high staple food prices persist across the region. In Burkina Faso, staple food prices have hit record prices in many markets, with prices of maize, millet, and sorghum reaching about 60 percent above average.

Nigeria

Although conflict has somewhat decreased in the Northeast, concern remains high as years of insecurity have eroded livelihoods. In the Northwest and Northcentral, conflict is expected to be high, driving further displacement. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain poor households’ purchasing power. 

High transportation costs, driven by fuel shortages and subsequent price increases, coupled with high global food prices related to the Ukraine crisis, are putting pressure on food prices. Food prices remain significantly above average and last year.

.

Peak Needs 2022

FEWS NET Data Center link

Scenario development video

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics