Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Record levels of humanitarian assistance needs are anticipated in 2022 due to conflict in northern Ethiopia, which remains of highest concern, and a likely fourth consecutive poor season in southern and southeastern pastoral areas.

Current Observations

On January 9th, some humanitarian agencies suspended operations in Dedebit town in Tigray, after airstrikes hit an IDP camp; however, some humanitarians are still operating in these areas.   

Reason for Concern

Localized conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. The loss of livelihood assets from conflict and floods has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

Floodwaters in northern Jonglei and Unity states have yet to recede, resulting in prolonged, severe impacts on food and income sources, population movement, and humanitarian access.

Reason for Concern

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Current Observations

Since November 2021, airstrikes on Sana’a city by the Saudi-led coalition have increased to the highest frequency seen in years. The bombing has killed civilians and damaged roads and transportation infrastructure, including the airport.

Reason for Concern

Although conflict has somewhat decreased in the Northeast, concern remains high as years of insecurity have eroded livelihoods. In the Northwest and Northcentral conflict is expected to be high driving further displacement. Poor macroeconomic conditions are constraining poor households' purchasing power. 

Current Observations

On January 10, the sixth out of nine IDP camps in Maiduguri closed, which hosted over 11,000 IDPs. IDPs are returning to various areas across Northeast Nigeria.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Below-average rainfall is forecast throughout the 2021/2022 rainy season. After two consecutive years of drought, this is expected to worsen food security outcomes, especially during the ongoing lean season.

Current Observations

Observed rainfall from October to December 2021 was significantly below average, leading to a late start of the season. Latest forecasts indicate abnormally dry and drought conditions are likely to continue through March 2022. 

Reason for Concern

Below-average rainfall in the eastern Horn in late 2020 and early 2021 culminated in a multi-season drought, causing significant crop and livestock production losses. A long-term forecast of a third below-average season in late 2021 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access.

Current Observations

The late 2021 rains failed in most of the eastern Horn, leading to crop failure, livestock deaths, and high food prices. Drought will intensify between January and March, which is typically dry and hot.

Reason for Concern

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 1.8 million people are displaced throughout the region. 

Current Observations

Over 2.1 million IDPs were registered across Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso in late November 2021, representing about a 20 percent increase since January 2021.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Ethiopia

Record levels of humanitarian assistance needs are anticipated in 2022 due to conflict in northern Ethiopia, which remains of highest concern, and a likely fourth consecutive poor season in southern and southeastern pastoral areas.

On January 9th, some humanitarian agencies suspended operations in Dedebit town in Tigray, after airstrikes hit an IDP camp; however, some humanitarians are still operating in these areas.   

South Sudan

Localized conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. The loss of livelihood assets from conflict and floods has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Floodwaters in northern Jonglei and Unity states have yet to recede, resulting in prolonged, severe impacts on food and income sources, population movement, and humanitarian access.

Yemen

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Since November 2021, airstrikes on Sana’a city by the Saudi-led coalition have increased to the highest frequency seen in years. The bombing has killed civilians and damaged roads and transportation infrastructure, including the airport.

Nigeria

Although conflict has somewhat decreased in the Northeast, concern remains high as years of insecurity have eroded livelihoods. In the Northwest and Northcentral conflict is expected to be high driving further displacement. Poor macroeconomic conditions are constraining poor households' purchasing power. 

On January 10, the sixth out of nine IDP camps in Maiduguri closed, which hosted over 11,000 IDPs. IDPs are returning to various areas across Northeast Nigeria.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Southern Madagascar

Below-average rainfall is forecast throughout the 2021/2022 rainy season. After two consecutive years of drought, this is expected to worsen food security outcomes, especially during the ongoing lean season.

Observed rainfall from October to December 2021 was significantly below average, leading to a late start of the season. Latest forecasts indicate abnormally dry and drought conditions are likely to continue through March 2022. 

Horn of Africa

Below-average rainfall in the eastern Horn in late 2020 and early 2021 culminated in a multi-season drought, causing significant crop and livestock production losses. A long-term forecast of a third below-average season in late 2021 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access.

The late 2021 rains failed in most of the eastern Horn, leading to crop failure, livestock deaths, and high food prices. Drought will intensify between January and March, which is typically dry and hot.

Bordering areas of Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 1.8 million people are displaced throughout the region. 

Over 2.1 million IDPs were registered across Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso in late November 2021, representing about a 20 percent increase since January 2021.

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Peak Needs 2022

FEWS NET Data Center link

Scenario development video

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics