Savanes region faces Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes despite harvests

• Although the number of people in need is seasonally low in October 2024 due to improved access to food and income with the harvest, humanitarian assistance needs will begin to rise seasonally at the start of 2025. FEWS NET estimates that between 250,000 and 499,999 people will likely require humanitarian food aid as the lean season approaches in May 2025. The population in need is likely to be concentrated in the Savanes region, which is home to refugees, internally displaced people (IDPs), and host communities affected by civil insecurity.
• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to prevail in the Savanes region through May 2025. Insecurity in the region limits agricultural production, and poor households are atypically dependent on markets, even during the post-harvest period. Due to increased food purchases and the decline in income due to fewer agricultural labor opportunities, poor households are able to meet their minimum food needs but cannot cover all necessary non-food expenditures without resorting to Stressed coping strategies.
• In other regions of the country, food security for poor households is improving thanks to the mostly average recent harvests. Most poor households are expected to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through the pre-lean season period in April/May 2025, thanks to food stock reserves and income from livelihood activities. 

Learn more

The following links provide additional information: 

• Remote Monitoring Update, June 2024 
• Overview of FEWS NET's scenario development methodology 
• FEWS NET's approach to estimating the population in need 
• Overview of IPC and IPC-compatible analysis 
• FEWS NET's approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis

Northern Togo is composed of two regions (Savanes and Kara) which accommodate over 26 percent of the Togolese population and is an area of particular concern. Conflict is one of the main drivers of acute food insecurity in Togo; the violent extremist organization Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) has been active since 2021, with impacts mainly limited to the northern part of the country, particularly in Savanes Region. The conflict drives population displacement and disrupts livelihood activities, which in turn reduces sources of food and household income. In addition, the conflict in Burkina Faso has resulted in an influx of refugees into northern Togo.

Across the country during the lean period, agricultural work is the main source of income for poor households. Other sources of income include land rentals, crop sales, petty trade, migration, and, to a lesser extent, fishing. However, in conflict-affected areas, particularly in the prefectures of Kpendjal, Kpendjal Ouest, and Tone in Savanes, IDPs and refugees exert pressure on local livelihoods and compete with host households for agricultural work opportunities already disrupted by insecurity.

Maize is the main cereal produced and consumed in Togo, including in Savanes. The main production areas are in the bimodal regions in the south of the country, where cumulative annual rainfall is highest. In northern Togo, the rainfall pattern follows a more Sahelian seasonal schedule. Sorghum, rice, millet, roots, and tubers are also significant contributions to the national diet. Northern Togo is self-sufficient in maize production and produces sorghum, millet, rice, and yams. Maize is harvested from August to October, millet and sorghum from October to December, rice around November, and yams from July to January.

Poor households generally consume their own production for three to seven months of the year, while market purchases and in-kind payments supplement own production as food sources. In addition, maize and other cereal crops are sold on the market to generate household income. During the lean season (July to September), poor households in northern Togo typically deplete their food stocks and depend mainly on the market for food. Food supplies in the country will increase in September as traders and households replenish food stocks with the harvest. Throughout the country, household food access is expected to seasonally improve with the consumption of own-production and harvested produce.

National 

• In the bimodal rainfall zone in the south, the short rainy season had a late start at the end of September but is only expected to last until November. This is an atypically short season and could lead to reduced yields and food availability.
• According to the World Bank, the Togolese economy, which recorded an average growth of 6.1 percent between 2021 and 2023, is expected to slow to around 5.3 percent in 2024. This is due to factors including weak global demand and disruptions in regional trade flows.
• Overall inflation decreased to 3.2 percent in September 2024; however, food inflation remains high at 7.5 percent, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic and Demographic Studies (INSEED).
• The shocks related to the Sahel crisis – with its negative impacts on cross-border flows in the north – are disrupting the supply of border markets in the northern part of the country. In the rest of the country, markets are well supplied with imported goods, and the availability of local products is improving due to the recent harvests. However, food prices remain above the five-year average in almost all regions of Togo. In August 2024, maize prices showed increases ranging from 11 to 84 percent compared to the five-year average, depending on the region (Figure 1). For example, in the Plateaux region, the price of maize in August 2024 was XOF 381/kg compared to the five-year average of XOF 207/kg, an increase of 84 percent. In the Kara region, maize was trading at XOF 317/kg compared to the five-year average of XOF 214/kg, an increase of 48 percent. Basic food items are out of reach for poor households, particularly in the northern part of the country, where income losses are linked to the effects of insecurity. 

Area of Concern: Savanes region 

• The recurrent attacks by terrorist armed groups against civilian populations are negatively impacting the functioning of economic and social activities, as well as the operation of markets, despite the strengthening of defensive and offensive security measures since the jihadist attack in late July. As part of securing the area, Togolese authorities have also initiated a dialogue campaign with local populations aimed at preventing radicalization and deradicalizing young people who have been used as fighters.
• Due to insecurity, local populations avoid venturing into remote areas and are forced to abandon distant farmlands and limit livelihood activities such as hunting, gathering, and collecting firewood to a relatively restricted area. 
• Due to the large IDP population, natural resources, livelihoods, basic social infrastructure, and employment and income opportunities are under significant pressure, which weakens the host communities. As of August 31, UNHCR estimated that there were 58,011 IDPs, primarily located in Tone, Cinkassé, Tandouaré, Sotouboua, Kpendal-Ouest, and Dankpen regions.

National 

• In the bimodal rainfall zone in the south, the short rainy season had a late start at the end of September but is only expected to last until November. This is an atypically short season and could lead to reduced yields and food availability.
• According to the World Bank, the Togolese economy, which recorded an average growth of 6.1 percent between 2021 and 2023, is expected to slow to around 5.3 percent in 2024. This is due to factors including weak global demand and disruptions in regional trade flows.
• Overall inflation decreased to 3.2 percent in September 2024; however, food inflation remains high at 7.5 percent, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic and Demographic Studies (INSEED).
• The shocks related to the Sahel crisis – with its negative impacts on cross-border flows in the north – are disrupting the supply of border markets in the northern part of the country. In the rest of the country, markets are well supplied with imported goods, and the availability of local products is improving due to the recent harvests. However, food prices remain above the five-year average in almost all regions of Togo. In August 2024, maize prices showed increases ranging from 11 to 84 percent compared to the five-year average, depending on the region (Figure 1). For example, in the Plateaux region, the price of maize in August 2024 was XOF 381/kg compared to the five-year average of XOF 207/kg, an increase of 84 percent. In the Kara region, maize was trading at XOF 317/kg compared to the five-year average of XOF 214/kg, an increase of 48 percent. Basic food items are out of reach for poor households, particularly in the northern part of the country, where income losses are linked to the effects of insecurity. 

Area of Concern: Savanes region 

• The recurrent attacks by terrorist armed groups against civilian populations are negatively impacting the functioning of economic and social activities, as well as the operation of markets, despite the strengthening of defensive and offensive security measures since the jihadist attack in late July. As part of securing the area, Togolese authorities have also initiated a dialogue campaign with local populations aimed at preventing radicalization and deradicalizing young people who have been used as fighters.
• Due to insecurity, local populations avoid venturing into remote areas and are forced to abandon distant farmlands and limit livelihood activities such as hunting, gathering, and collecting firewood to a relatively restricted area. 
• Due to the large IDP population, natural resources, livelihoods, basic social infrastructure, and employment and income opportunities are under significant pressure, which weakens the host communities. As of August 31, UNHCR estimated that there were 58,011 IDPs, primarily located in Tone, Cinkassé, Tandouaré, Sotouboua, Kpendal-Ouest, and Dankpen regions.

The Togolese government and the WFP are providing humanitarian assistance to populations affected by the Sahel crisis in the northern part of Togo. As part of the assistance during the lean season (in August, September, and October), food distribution took place in three phases to asylum seekers, refugees, IDPs, and host populations. This assistance reached a total of 63,440 beneficiaries from the prefectures of Tandjoaré, Tône, Cinkassé, Ôti, South Ôti, Kpendjal, and Kendjal-Ouest. Each household received 52.5 kg of maize, 15 kg of white beans, 5.5 liters of oil, and 0.625 kg of iodized salt. Nutritionally, children aged 6 to 23 months, as well as pregnant and breastfeeding women, received enriched "super cereal" flour, with 3 kg for children and 6 kg for women, to address vitamin deficiencies.

National assumptions 

• According to preliminary estimates from PREGEC, Togo's cereal production is expected to be 1,458,000 metric tons, close to the five-year average (a 2 percent increase). From October to May, agricultural production is expected to be in line with the average, and poor households should be able to cover three to five months of consumption with typical agricultural and non-agricultural incomes.
• Localized flooding could occur in the Plateaux and Maritime regions, where weather forecasts predict heavy rainfall during the short rainy season from September to November. These floods could lead to localized losses of homes and food reserves, and result in internal displacement of populations in certain areas.
• Food prices should follow seasonal trends. After a seasonal decline from October to February, prices should increase seasonally from March. However, prices will remain above the five-year average throughout the projection period. 
• The persistent sociopolitical and security crisis in the Sahel countries, as well as the increase in fuel costs, are expected to continue to negatively impact acute food insecurity in major cities.

Sub-national assumptions for the Savanes region

• Civil insecurity is expected to persist in the Savanes region. However, the frequency of attacks is not expected to increase significantly due to the measures taken by the government to strengthen security in the area.
• The presence of IDPs and refugees is expected to persist and will continue to place pressure on the food and income sources of host populations, as well as on basic social services.

Humanitarian food aid

National assumption

• Humanitarian access is expected to improve with the end of the rainy season, allowing for the implementation of various government and partner programs. However, humanitarian assistance is expected to decrease in volume during this post-harvest period. Furthermore, the particularly challenging international situation could be a limiting factor in the ability to mobilize funds

Savanes Region: 

From October 2024 to February 2025 (the post-harvest period), most households in the Savanes region should be able to meet their daily food consumption needs with food stocks from the harvests of their maize, millet, and sorghum fields. The region also has many other sources of food and income for poor households, including seasonal migration to the south for coffee harvesting, fishing, hunting, gathering, the production of shea butter, and local beer making, which will result in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes for many households. However, the insecurity-driven presence of thousands of refugees, IDPs, and host households who have been unable to produce or have lost part of their livelihoods, is expected to lead the region to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

From March to May 2025 (the pre-lean season period), poor households’ food stocks will start to deplete, likely forcing a larger number of poor households to rely on markets for their food. However, with high prices for basic foods (above the five-year average) many will be unable to afford certain non-food expenditures without resorting to negative coping strategies. Overall, the area is expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until May.

Rest of country: 

In other regions of the country, the period from October 2024 to May 2025 will be marked by the presence of food stocks in households, allowing most to have sufficient food consumption from own production. This period is also favorable for engagement in a wide range of livelihood activities – including hunting, gathering forest products, collecting and selling firewood, market gardening, and self-employment – which will provide households with average income to cover their food and non-food needs without resorting to negative coping strategies. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to prevail through May 2025.