Good production will reduce food insecurity at the start of the harvest season

• FEWS NET estimates that 250,000 to 500,000 people will likely need humanitarian food aid during the peak of the lean season from June to August. The population in need will most likely be concentrated primarily in Savanes Region, which is home to refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and host communities affected by civil insecurity.
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to prevail in Savanes Region until August, although the September harvest will improve acute food insecurity and result in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from October 2024 to January 2025.
• In Kara Region, food security conditions for poor households are expected to improve from September/October onwards with the harvest. Some poor households experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during the lean season (June to August) are expected to transition to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from October 2024 to January 2025. 
• From October 2024 to January 2025, poor households in the rest of the country will likely be able to cover their basic food and non-food needs and benefit from stable food security. Expected harvests and typical income-generating activities such as the sale of wood/charcoal and forest products, agricultural employment, and craftsmanship will allow households to avoid resorting to negative coping strategies until January 2025.

Northern Togo is composed of two regions (Savanes and Kara) which accommodate over 26 percent of the Togolese population and is an area of particular concern. Conflict is one of the main drivers of acute food insecurity in Togo; the violent extremist organization Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) has been active since 2021, with impacts mainly limited to the northern part of the country, particularly in Savanes Region. The conflict drives population displacement and disrupts livelihood activities, which in turn reduces sources of food and household income. In addition, the conflict in Burkina Faso has resulted in an influx of refugees into northern Togo.

Across the country during the lean period, agricultural work is the main source of income for poor households. Other sources of income include land rentals, crop sales, petty trade, migration, and, to a lesser extent, fishing. However, in conflict-affected areas, particularly in the prefectures of Kpendjal, Kpendjal Ouest, and Tone in Savanes, IDPs and refugees exert pressure on local livelihoods and compete with host households for agricultural work opportunities already disrupted by insecurity.

Maize is the main cereal produced and consumed in Togo, including in Savanes. The main production areas are in the bimodal regions in the south of the country, where cumulative annual rainfall is highest. In northern Togo, the rainfall pattern follows a more Sahelian seasonal schedule. Sorghum, rice, millet, roots, and tubers are also significant contributions to the national diet. Northern Togo is self-sufficient in maize production and produces sorghum, millet, rice, and yams. Maize is harvested from August to October, millet and sorghum from October to December, rice around November, and yams from July to January.

Poor households generally consume their own-produce for three to seven months of the year, while market purchases and in-kind payments supplement own-production as food sources. In addition, maize and other cereal crops are sold on the market to generate household income. During the lean season (July to September), poor households in northern Togo typically deplete their food stocks and depend mainly on the market for food. Food supplies in the country will increase in September as traders and households replenish food stocks with the harvest. Throughout the country, household food access is expected to seasonally improve with the consumption of own-production and harvested produce.

Learn more

The following links provide additional information: 

• Remote Monitoring Update, April 2024 
• Overview of FEWS NET's scenario development methodology 
• FEWS NET's approach to estimating the population in need
• Overview of IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
• FEWS NET's approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis

National

Several districts of Lomé were hit by floods on May 22 and 25, 2024, affecting around 20,000 households, according to a rapid assessment by the Togolese Red Cross. Most of these victims who have lost their food stocks will need emergency food assistance. The risk of flooding remains high, and the government has advised residents in flood-prone areas to prepare for evacuation in case of disaster.

Markets remain relatively well supplied with imported products. However, the supply of local food products is declining as the lean season progresses in the south. Food prices continue their seasonal upward trend, with the national average price of maize in May at 300 FCFA/kg, compared with 282 FCFA/kg the previous month, a 6 percent increase. At the national level, these prices are 12 percent and 38 percent higher than last year and the five-year average, respectively (Figure 1). The current price level is attributable not only to strong household demand but also to high transportation costs due to rising fuel prices.

Area of Concern: Savanes Region 

Since November 2021, northern Togo has been experiencing incursions by armed groups that disrupt socioeconomic activities, displace people, and increase social tensions. The assessment carried out by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) on June 27, 2024, shows five attacks against civilians in the first six months of 2024, which resulted in the death of 13 people, including four people in the month of June alone. However, the frequency and severity of these attacks are slightly lower compared to the same period last year, when a total of nine attacks against civilians were recorded, resulting in a total of 49 deaths. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), in April 2024, Togo hosted 22,765 refugees, 9,680 IDPs, and 4,095 asylum seekers, all located in the Savanes Region. The area, which has been in a state of emergency since June 2022, continues to be heavily guarded by defense and security forces.

The presence of many IDPs and refugees in the prefectures of Kpendjal, Kpendjal Ouest, and Tone continues to negatively affect the food and income sources of the host communities in the area. Local resources such as water, food, agricultural and non-agricultural jobs, and other local sources of income are under significant pressure, leading to a deterioration in the food insecurity of host households.

Humanitarian food assistance

The government and its partners have begun providing humanitarian assistance, including a food distribution operation to displaced populations in March 2024. The financial support of the WFP in the implementation of the program has made it possible to provide food assistance to displaced populations. This assistance involved a total of 959 tons of food for over 63,000 people. In addition, the WFP and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) undertook a humanitarian operation in June to support flood and food insecurity victims. A distribution of essential household items benefited 1,000 households (around 5,000 people), while food and nutrition kits were provided to 1,717 households (around 13,585 beneficiaries), including pregnant and lactating women as well as children suffering from severe acute malnutrition. The aid was distributed across 19 prefectures in Togo's five economic regions: Maritime, Plateaux, Centrale, Kara, and Savanes. 

National assumptions 

• Seasonal forecasts point to normal to surplus rainfall, interspersed with long dry spells with normal trends at the start and towards the end of the season, as well as an early to normal end to the agricultural season in the Plateaux and Maritime regions. In the river basins, flow trends will be average to above average in the Lower Mono Basin and the Lake Togo Basin. 
• The average to good rainfall expected across the country suggests a normal agricultural season. Planted areas should be average to above average. Government-provided inputs should support agricultural production, leading to agricultural output similar to or greater than last season.
• Ongoing agricultural activities offer agricultural employment opportunities to poor households, supporting typical incomes until December/January. In the cotton-growing zone, the enthusiasm generated by the good performance of the last cotton season could boost cotton planting and increase demand for farm labor and incomes.
• The upward trend in staple food prices will continue throughout the lean season (July to August) in almost all the country, and prices are expected to remain above the five-year average. However, during the September to October harvest period, prices will begin their seasonal downward trend. 

Sub-national assumptions for the Savanes Region

• Sporadic attacks will continue in this border area with Burkina Faso, which is still plagued by insecurity. However, the pace of these attacks is expected to remain stable until at least January 2025.
• Despite support from the government, the European Union, FAO, and WFP for agricultural inputs to over 7,000 small producers of maize, rice, and cowpeas in the Kara and Savanes regions for this agricultural season, the region's economic and agricultural activities will remain negatively impacted by ongoing insecurity. Access to fields will remain limited, resulting in relatively small areas and harvests below the five-year average. In addition, IDPs who do not have access to cultivation plots will have near-zero production. The slowdown in economic activities is expected to continue, while labor supply is expected to be greater than normal and exceed demand due to a surplus driven by the presence of IDPs and refugees. In addition, the strong demand for agricultural and non-agricultural employment will contribute to below-average daily wage levels.
• Maize prices are expected to follow an above-average, seasonal upwards trend due to strong demand from displaced persons. This will likely have a significant negative impact on food supplies for poor households, IDPs, and refugees, whose purchasing power has been severely diminished.

Humanitarian food assistance

National assumption

• Humanitarian access in the Savanes Region is expected to improve with the decrease in conflicts. However, it is likely that levels of assistance will decline from October as some humanitarians typically reduce their levels of assistance during the harvest period.

Northern Togo (Savanes Region): During the June to August lean season, poor households, IDPs, and refugees in the prefectures of Kpendjal, Kpendjal-Ouest, Oti, Tone, and Cinkasse are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Households with depleted food stocks and lost livelihoods due to insecurity may be forced to limit both the number and quantity of daily meals and resort to negative coping strategies, such as consuming wild foods or less-preferred items. From September to January, food insecurity outcomes should improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for many of these households due to the availability of new crops and income from off-season activities, including market gardening and self-employment. 

Southern Togo (Maritime and Plateaux regions): During the lean season, poor households are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes due to the depletion of food stocks, rising food prices, and weakened purchasing power. Households will be able to meet only their basic food, but not non-food, needs. After the major season harvests in July/August, food access will significantly improve and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected until January 2025.

Central regions: Households in the central regions will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until January 2025 as they will be able to meet their food and non-food needs without resorting to negative coping strategies.