Crisis ongoing in the Kpendjals amid atypically harsh lean season due to insecurity

• A deterioration to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected between June and September 2026 in the prefectures of Kpendjal and Kpendjal-Ouest, the areas of greatest concern in the country. Spillover effects from the Sahel conflict will continue to limit household access to food and income during the peak of the lean season, which will be more difficult than in a typical year. The October harvests will allow for a seasonal improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, although household incomes will remain below normal.
• The number of people in need of food assistance will peak at 250,000-499,999 between July and August, at the height of the lean season, before decreasing seasonally after the October harvests. Refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) represent the populations of highest concern, as well as poor rural households in the north affected by the indirect effects of insecurity.
• Spillover effects from the conflict in the Sahel will continue to degrade livelihoods in the Savanes Region. Incursions by armed groups along the northern borders and the maintenance of the state of security emergency will continue to limit access to agricultural land in conflict zones, cause population displacements, and disrupt agricultural and economic activities, particularly in Kpendjal and Kpendjal-Ouest prefectures.
• Disruptions to trade routes, control measures, and export restrictions on certain agricultural products will continue to reduce trade flows, particularly in the north. Added to this is the increase in oil prices, which raises transportation and marketing costs, exerting additional pressure on prices, economic activities, and household purchasing power.

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 19, 2026. 

Agriculture and livestock constitute the main livelihoods of rural households in Togo. The majority of poor households depend on food crop production (maize, sorghum, millet, rice, cowpea, cassava, and yam), supplemented by income from the sale of cash crops (cotton, coffee, cocoa, cashew nuts), small livestock, agricultural labor, retail trade, and the exploitation of natural resources. Production systems follow two distinct rainfall patterns: one agricultural season in the northern regions and two seasons in the southern regions. In a typical year, households meet most of their food needs through their own production and supplement their income through seasonal agricultural and non-agricultural activities, while pastoral and agropastoral households depend on livestock sales and animal products to purchase food.

Production surpluses are generally concentrated in the central and northern regions, while structural deficits are observed in urban and coastal areas (particularly in Lomé and the Maritime region), where population density, land pressure, and market dependence are high. Togo's market system is organized around several commercial basins. Lomé, the main center for imports, wholesale, and redistribution, is connected to the port. Kara and Sokodé constitute important collection and redistribution centers for domestic and regional trade. Markets are characterized by a multitude of small traders and collection points, with a higher concentration of wholesale and import activities. Price seasonality is pronounced: cereal prices are lowest after harvest and reach their peak during the lean season, from May to August. Togo is self-sufficient in secondary cereals (maize, millet, and sorghum) and tubers (cassava and yam) but is a net importer of rice and wheat.

Togo's economy is strongly integrated into regional markets. Trade with Burkina Faso, Ghana, Benin, and Nigeria plays an important role in supplying markets with food products, livestock, and agricultural inputs. Households, particularly in urban areas and production-deficit zones, depend largely on markets to meet their food needs. Consequently, transportation costs, fuel prices, food price fluctuations, and trade disruptions influence household access to food.

Agricultural production remains heavily dependent on rainfall conditions, and households remain exposed to weather hazards such as delayed onset of the rainy season, dry spells, and localized flooding. In the Savanes Region, recurrent overflows of the Kpendjal River (Oti), mainly due to water releases from the Kompienga Dam in Burkina Faso, regularly result in losses of crops, livestock, and infrastructure. Pastoral livelihoods are also affected by constraints on livestock mobility, particularly due to restrictions on cross-border transhumance that limit customary access to pastures and water points and encourage herd movements outside regulatory corridors, increasing the risks of farmer-herder conflict while affecting the health and productivity of livestock.

Since 2022, the northern part of the country has been facing a deterioration of the security situation linked to the spillover of the Sahelian crisis. This insecurity results from the expansion of armed groups operating from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger toward the border areas of the Savanes Region, primarily in the prefectures of Kpendjal and Kpendjal-Ouest. Sporadic attacks against defense and security forces and civilian populations, military operations, and the maintenance of the state of security emergency have profoundly disrupted economic activities and livelihoods. This crisis has also resulted in internal population displacements, a continuous influx of Burkinabe refugees, and increasing pressure on host communities and basic social services.

Overall, food security conditions in Togo are influenced by the interaction between weather hazards, agricultural season performance, market functioning, macroeconomic conditions and, in the northern part of the country, persistent insecurity and population displacement. These factors shape household livelihoods and their capacity to access sufficient food. The poorest households remain particularly vulnerable to successive shocks.

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information:

• Latest Togo Key Messages Update: May 2026
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology
• FEWS NET's approach to estimating the population in need
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analyses
• FEWS NET's approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis

Insecurity in the north of the country is the main shock impacting acute food insecurity, with the progressive expansion of Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) from Burkina Faso toward the Savanes Region. Since 2025, the group has strengthened its presence in isolated rural areas of the Kpendjal and Kpendjal-Ouest prefectures, where it conducts attacks against security forces. At the same time, JNIM relies more heavily on informal cross-border trade and transport networks by taxing the flow of goods and using smuggling circuits (livestock, fuel, and other goods) to generate financial resources. Violent incidents in northern Togo increased from two in the first half of 2022 to a peak of 40 in the first half of 2025, before declining to 15 in the first half of 2026, a level comparable to that of 2023 and 2024. Overall, the pace of incidents has decreased compared to its 2025 peak. Faced with this threat, Togolese authorities have strengthened controls and extended the state of emergency in the Savanes Region. Insecurity and imposed restrictions continue to disrupt economic activities and livelihoods, while security operations lead to population displacement, primarily toward the Tône and Cinkassé prefectures, despite these measures. A total of 51,151 refugees and 10,171 IDPs are registered across the entire territory, with 99 percent (50,626 people) of these refugees located in the Savanes Region.

Disruptions to trade flows continue to affect market function in the Savanes Region. The decrease in trade and the number of buyers is leading to an accumulation of unsold stocks among producers and traders, particularly in Kpendjal and Kpendjal-Ouest prefectures. This situation is resulting in an atypical decrease in prices of certain cereals on several markets, particularly in Mandouri and Ogaro, where prices of husked local rice have dropped by more than 30 percent compared to the previous year and typical levels. This price decrease is being exacerbated by premature sales of farmers' stocks to finance ongoing agricultural activities.

The recent increase in fuel prices came into effect on May 27, 2026, following fluctuations in global petroleum product prices. Although the measure applies to the entire territory, this increase is amplified in localities far from gas stations, where an additional charge of up to 20 XOF/liter is added to transportation and distribution costs. This provision results in higher prices in remote areas, including in the Savanes Region.

The start of the rainy season was typical, occurring in February in the bimodal zone and at the end of April in the unimodal zone, facilitating the launch of the 2026/27 agricultural season throughout Togolese territory. This period is marked by intensified soil preparation, plowing, and initial planting. However, in the northern part of the country, particularly in the Savanes Region, the season's progress is affected by spillover effects from the Sahel security crisis. This situation is notably reflected by an increase in the cost of agricultural labor, which increased by 10 to 20 percent compared to the previous season and by more than 35 percent over the past five years, a reduction in cultivated areas in zones most exposed to insecurity, and an increase in the cost of seeds and other agricultural inputs.

Pastoral movements in Togo have been marked by the suspension of cross-border transhumance since 2021, officially limiting the entry of herds from the Sahel. This measure aims to reduce agropastoral tensions and strengthen security in the country's northern border areas. In the Savanes Region, the concentration of local herds is placing increased pressure on pastoral resources and contributing to persistent farmer-herder tensions in certain localities, despite conflict regulation and management mechanisms established at the community and administrative levels.

Humanitarian food assistance

Between March and June 2026, WFP provided emergency food assistance to approximately 8,700 people in the Savanes Region, through cash transfers in the form of electronic vouchers, primarily targeting refugees, IDPs, and poor host households. In addition, a school feeding program benefits more than 60,000 students. Although these interventions contribute to improving immediate food access for beneficiaries, their coverage and scale remain insufficient to significantly modify food security outcomes at the zone level.

The Savanes Region remains the area of highest concern, followed by Kara Region, where Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing. Insecurity and the refugee influx continue to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and agricultural activities, reducing the income of poor households at the beginning of the lean season. Although food consumption remains generally sufficient to meet minimum energy needs, households are progressively reducing dietary diversity by limiting consumption of nutrient-rich foods such as animal products, legumes, fruits, and vegetables. To maintain their access to food, households are resorting to coping strategies such as reducing certain essential non-food expenditures, slightly intensifying the sale of small agricultural products or livestock, and increasing reliance on the gathering of non-timber forest products, particularly shea. The concentration of refugees and IDPs is intensifying pressure on livelihoods and basic services, while the seasonal resurgence of diarrheal diseases during the rainy season is contributing to a deterioration in nutritional status, particularly among children.

In the rest of the country, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are ongoing. Despite the recent increase in fuel prices and localized flooding in the south, households continue to benefit from typical seasonal agricultural conditions, the early stages of the first season of the bimodal season, and generally well-supplied markets. Maize, cowpea, and red sorghum prices remain below the five-year average, supporting food access for poor households. Overall, households can meet their essential food and non-food needs without resorting to atypical coping strategies.

• In the Savanes Region, the security situation is expected to remain volatile due to persistent risks of armed incursions and the possible attempt by extremist groups to establish themselves along border areas, which will contribute to extending insecurity toward areas further south, particularly in surrounding prefectures such as Tône, Cinkassé, Oti, and Oti-Sud.

• The recent increase in fuel prices in Togo, raised to 725 FCFA for gasoline and 750 FCFA for diesel, is expected to persist until January 2027; in the absence of additional confirmed information on public policy directions, the maintenance of subsidy mechanisms remains likely.

• On the macroeconomic front, Togo's GDP growth is expected to remain strong in 2026, with growth estimated between 5 percent and 6.5 percent according to the various available forecasts. Inflation is expected to remain contained at 1.8 percent in 2026. This dynamic would be primarily driven by the continuation of public infrastructure investments, the development of logistics and commercial activities at the Autonomous Port of Lomé, and the resilience of the services and agriculture sectors.
• According to Togo weather forecasts, below-average rainfall is likely in the Central, Kara, and Savanes regions between June and August. Dry spells could be relatively long at the beginning of the season before becoming shorter on average toward the end. Weather forecasts indicating continued precipitation could further increase the risk of flooding, particularly along the Zio River and toward Kati and Kpédji.
• Although agricultural activities will evolve in a typical manner with national-level average production, disruptions related to insecurity and population displacements will reduce cultivated areas and disrupt the agricultural labor market in Kpendjal and Kpendjal-Ouest prefectures.
• Between October 2026 and January 2027, harvests are expected to significantly strengthen cereal availability in the Savanes Region. However, the persistence of movement restrictions and insecurity is expected to continue to limit commercial trade. High stock levels, combined with difficulties in marketing production, could lead to an accumulation of products in certain production areas, while other markets, notably Dapaong and Cinkassé, would experience irregular supplies.
• In the Savanes Region, cereal prices are expected to remain stable or decrease. Prices of basic food commodities are expected to remain below the five-year average between June 2026 and January 2027, particularly from October onward, with the arrival of new harvests, leading to a seasonal decrease in prices (Figure 2).

• Livestock supply in the Kara and Savanes regions will be lower than a typical year between June 2026 and January 2027 due to the suspension of cross-border transhumance decreed by national authorities since 2021, the deterioration of pastoral mobility conditions, and security constraints in Savanes. In Kara, supply would remain close to typical trends. Overall, compared to previous years, the market would be more unstable, less regular, and tighter.
• Livestock prices are expected to trend below average in the main pastoral and agropastoral areas of the north, particularly (Tône, Cinkassé, Kpendjal, Kpendjal-Ouest, Oti, Oti-Sud), where the mobility of herds and herders will be severely disrupted due to insecurity constraints, displacement, and access to major consumption centers. Elsewhere in the country, prices will be near average.

Humanitarian food assistance

FEWS NET does not have access to humanitarian assistance planning for the June 2026-January 2027 period. Given the historically low levels of assistance during the post-harvest period, it is likely that assistance will not have a significant impact on food insecurity outcomes at the zone level. Planned interventions remain primarily focused on resilience and weather adaptation.

In Kpendjal and Kpendjal Ouest prefectures in the Savanes Region, the food security situation is expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between June and September 2026. Persistent insecurity will continue to limit access to agricultural land, agricultural and non-agricultural work opportunities, gathered products, and markets, while the atypical increase in fuel prices and trade disruptions will keep income and purchasing power below typical levels. As poor households become increasingly unable to meet their minimum food needs during the lean season, they will increasingly resort to strategies such as atypical sale of livestock at low prices (goats, sheep), sale of young breeding females to quickly obtain income, as well as borrowing food, food donations, and purchasing food on credit. The gathering of wild forest products, traditionally used during the lean season, remains limited by security constraints, reducing an important source of substitute food for poor households. Refugees and IDPs will remain the population of highest concern, due to their very limited access to productive assets, persistent livelihood loss, and difficulties with economic integration in host areas.

With the harvests from October 2026 to January 2027, outcomes will improve toward Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in Kpendjal and Kpendjal-Ouest. The new harvests will seasonally improve food availability and agricultural income. However, insecurity will continue to limit access to agricultural land and disrupt local and cross-border trade with neighboring countries such as Benin, Burkina Faso, and Ghana, limiting livelihood recovery. A proportion of poor households, refugees, and IDPs who have lost their productive assets or who will not have income will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

In the rest of the Savanes Region, outcomes are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the projection period except for Oti and Oti-Sud, where the situation is expected to improve toward Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes starting in October. During the lean season, the seasonal decrease in food stocks, combined with atypically low reserves and the persistent effects of insecurity, will lead poor households to limit their non-food expenditures. Starting in October, harvests will improve food availability and income from the marketing of agricultural products and the sale of livestock during end-of-year holidays and ceremonies. However, income levels will remain atypically low due to persistent trade disruptions and pressure on local resources from the influx of refugees.

In the Kara Region, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes expected during the lean season are projected to improve toward Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes starting in October due to harvests, which will support food availability, household income, and adequate access to food.

In the rest of the country, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes will prevail throughout the projection period. Households will continue to benefit from typical food availability from harvests, sufficient stocks, and generally well-supplied markets. In the bimodal regions of the south, the first harvests are underway, and the seasonal decrease in staple food prices will support household food access, allowing them to meet their essential food and non-food needs without resorting to atypical coping strategies.

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision-makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision-makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. 

FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

• How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario. 
• How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision-makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National

A reduction in fuel subsidies

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: A reduction in fuel subsidies could significantly increase transportation costs, leading to widespread price increases for food commodities and essential goods. This development would contribute to the progressive erosion of household purchasing power, as well as to a slowdown in trade flows and economic activity. Poor market-dependent households would be the most affected. In this context, households' capacity to meet their food and non-food needs is expected to decline, leading to increased reliance on negative coping strategies and reduced food consumption. An increase in the proportion of the population in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will be expected.

A deterioration of the security situation in the north

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: A deterioration of the security situation, marked by intensified attacks in the north, a geographic expansion of incidents into new areas, and increased population displacement, would lead to a significant degradation of livelihoods and market access. This evolution is expected to further disrupt economic activities, trade flows, and market supply, particularly in areas dependent on trade with affected regions. It would also limit household access to humanitarian assistance and essential services, while increasing pressures on civilian populations. In this context, the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to increase in the Savanes and Kara regions. In areas of Centre, a deterioration of seasonal conditions combined with the indirect effects of insecurity could lead to a shift from Minimal (IPC Phase 1) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). At the level of the most exposed areas, notably Kpendjal and Kpendjal-Ouest, currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), a further deterioration of security and economic conditions could lead to an increase in populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) starting from the peak of the lean season.

Increase in agricultural input prices

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: A reduction in public subsidies for fertilizers, combined with an increase in input prices on international markets amid persistent tensions in the Middle East, could lead to a significant increase in agricultural production costs. In the absence of maintaining the current level of public support, many producers could reduce the quantities of fertilizer applied or the areas planted. This situation is expected to result in a decrease in agricultural yields and, consequently, a decrease in overall production. The reduction in agricultural production would exert increased pressure on national food availability and contribute to an increase in food commodity prices on markets. It could also lead to a decrease in agricultural household incomes, worsening their economic vulnerability. In this context, a deterioration in acute food insecurity outcomes is expected, with an increase in the proportion of households in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3), particularly among poor agricultural households dependent on inputs.

Recurring floods

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Recurrent flooding in Savanes Region, as well as in bimodal zones and lowlands, particularly in the northern suburbs of Lomé (Togblé, Adétikopé) and in the Zio depression, could damage or destroy crops, disrupt economic infrastructure, and limit market functioning, thereby affecting supply flows and household livelihoods. According to the seasonal forecast bulletin from Togo's National Meteorological Agency, above-average rainfall totals are possible, increasing the risk of flooding in flood-prone areas. In this context, a reduction in food availability and access is expected in exposed areas. This could lead to a deterioration of acute food insecurity outcomes, with an increase in the number of households in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the most affected areas.