West Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook Update

• The gross regional cereal production for 2023/24 is estimated at 77 million metric tons (MT), slightly above the previous forecast of 76.4 million MT. This represents a 4 percent increase compared to the five-year average (2018/19 to 2022/23) but a 1 percent decrease from last year (2022/23)¹. Contractions in annual production were recorded in Nigeria and other major Sahel countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad), particularly for maize, millet, and sorghum, due to increased production costs, prolonged dry spells, and insecurity. Regional rice production, on the other hand, expanded (Figure 1). The regional production of roots and tubers was revised upward from 204.7 million MT to 206 million MT. Cash crop production increased while cowpea production continued to decline. 
• West Africa’s gross marketable surplus of coarse grains (maize, millet, sorghum, and fonio) will be substantially reduced during the 2023/24 marketing year compared to the previous year’s and five-year average. Rice and wheat import gaps will persist due to a significant decrease in regional rice import requirements (Figure 2). 
• Despite recent trade sanctions lifted on Niger, cross-border trade restrictions remain a major challenge in the region. The regional market assessments conducted in February 2024 confirmed the negative impacts of persistent insecurity in the Greater Lake Chad basin and the Liptako-Gourma region on supply and market functionality. Other factors include hikes in fuel prices in Nigeria, Cameroon, and Chad amidst the removal of subsidies and resulting impacts on transportation costs; unprecedented inflation and depreciation rates in Nigeria causing significant exchange rate losses (Figures 3 and 4); and the influx of refugees from neighboring Sudan into Chad exacerbating demand pressure.
• Staple food prices remained significantly above their five-year average levels across the region, driven by below-average supplies, strong demand, increased production and transportation costs, insecurity, sluggish macroeconomic conditions, and trade restrictions (Figures 5 to 6). Prices are expected to increase through the end of the lean season and remain above average due to the ongoing depletion of household stocks and subsequent market dependence.

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