Supply and Market Outlook

Regional Supply and Market Outlook Update

June 2022

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The official final gross cereal production figures for 2021/22 were close to the December 2021 projections, closing a little over 73 million metric tons (MT) for the whole region, a contraction of two percent from last year (2020/21), and an increase of three percent compared to the five-year average (2016/17 to 2020/21). However, unlike most Coastal areas, production dropped significantly in the Sahel due to poor climatic conditions, high input prices, and insecurity. Sorghum and millet production particularly declined (Figure 1). Moreover, the official above average production for roots and tubers and cash crops was revised slightly upwards.

  • West Africa maintained its gross self-sufficiency with coarse grains (maize, millet, sorghum, and fonio) in the 2021/22 marketing year, but the estimated gross marketable surplus will be significantly lower than average. Moreover, regional reliance on international rice and wheat imports will be above average (Figure 2). Regional exposure to the global supply disruptions and price spikes will deepen further for those commodities.

  • Staple food prices increased sharply above average, nearing or surpassing record levels in most countries. These trends, observed prior to the Ukraine crisis, are due to several factors, including below-average production in much of the Sahel, faster than normal depletion of stocks and subsequent intensified domestic and export demand, insecurity hindering trade in numerous conflict hotspots, lingering COVID-19 impacts on shipping, currency depreciation, cross-border trade
    restrictions, and surging transport costs. Moreover, soaring prices of fertilizers could affect the upcoming main rainfed crop season in major producing countries and aggravate tensions on the markets. As a result, a difficult lean season with new record price levels is expected, constraining food access for poor and very poor households.

  • The Ukraine crisis poses moderate to high food security concerns to countries of the region, as it has resulted in a fraught rise in global commodity, fuel, and fertilizer prices, inducing additional and generalized inflationary trends. The region has also been dealing with political instabilities and stalemates from coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Chad.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics