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West Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook Report

  • Supply and Market Outlook
  • West Africa
  • December 30, 2023
West Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook Report

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  • Key Messages
  • Partners
    CILSS
    WFP
    FAO
    Key Messages
    • The aggregate regional cereal production for 2023/24 is forecasted to be about 76.5 million metric tons (MT), down by one percent from the previous year (2022/23) and up by three percent compared to the five-year average (2018/19 to 2022/23). While rice production is expected to experience significant increases, production for coarse grains (maize, sorghum, and millet) is anticipated to decrease considerably due to agroclimatic challenges, insecurity, and rising production costs (Figure 1). Notable annual declines in national cereal production are expected in Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Mali. For most roots, tubers, and cash crops, regional production prospects are optimistic.
    • West Africa will retain a gross marketable surplus of coarse grains for 2023/24, but supplies will be significantly below that of the previous year (-42 percent) and the five-year average (-37 percent), while the structural rice import gaps will slightly narrow from approximately 8.5 million MT to 7.9 million MT (Figure 2). International imports into the region will be constrained by global trade restrictions, shipping costs, lower national exchange rates, and domestic policies.
    • Protracted insecurity and conflict – particularly in the Liptako-Gourma region and the Greater Lake Chad basin - the growing tendency of export bans or restrictions taken by national governments, and the ongoing Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)-led sanctions on Niger are significantly obstructing intraregional trade with adverse supply and market implications throughout the region.
    • Staple prices currently remain above the five-year average across the region. This is attributable to a combination of factors including production deficits, trade restrictions, insecurity in the Sahel, elevated global prices, high transaction costs, and currency depreciation in the coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea. Moreover, Nigeria’s annual inflation continues to climb, exacerbated by the removal of fuel subsidies. Prices are projected to stay above both average owing to the limited production performance, sustained demand, constrained humanitarian assistance, continuing trade disruptions, and security and socioeconomic challenges in the region.
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