Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• Official estimates indicate favorable prospects for 2022/23 crop production in the region. Aggregate cereal production is forecasted at about 76.4 million metric tons (MT), a minor increase compared to both the previous year (2021/22) and the five-year average (2017/18 to 2021/22). After dropping considerably last year, production is expected to resurge in the Sahel, driven by sorghum and millet, which benefited from good rainfall. In contrast, maize and rice production growths are expected to slow down as a result of limited access to fertilizers and flooding (Figure 1). Rising production trends are also projected for most roots, tubers, cash, and industrial crops. Infestations could drive down, however, cotton production.

• Over the course of the 2022/23 marketing year (MY), regional self-sufficiency with coarse grains (maize, millet, sorghum, and fonio) will be above both last year and the average, while structural rice and wheat import gaps will uphold (Figure 2). Even so, international imports will likely decrease in several countries, mostly because of official bans, removal of tax exemptions, global market disruptions, and high shipping costs.

• Staple prices remain well above average in the region due to the lower carry-over stocks, above-average demand, trade flow restrictions, and insecurity in the Sahel, strong export demand and currency depreciation in the coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea. Price rises were further exacerbated by surging transport costs caused by fuel price hikes. Prices are projected to remain above average due to greater replenishments from traders and institutions, elevated transport costs, and expanding assistance needs amidst a general inflation.

• Surplus rainfall during the season favored fodder availability and watering conditions, presaging improved livestock herding and production compared to the previous year. However, insecurity continues to hamper access to pastoral resources as well as livestock trade. Above-average livestock prices will carry on for much of the year, favored by good animal body conditions and sustained demand.