Skip to main content

West Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook

  • Supply and Market Outlook
  • West Africa
  • December 21, 2021
West Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook

Download the Report

  • Key Messages
  • Partners
    CILSS
    WFP
    FAO
    Key Messages
    • Regionally validated crop production data forecast aggregate cereal production at 73.3 million metric tons (MT) for 2021/22, which will be a decrease of two percent compared to the previous year (2020/21) and an increase of three percent compared to the previous five-year average (2016/17 to 2020/21). Specific production decreases compared to last year were reported mainly in Sahel countries due mainly to unfavorable rainfall patterns and insecurity. Maize production is expected to increase from last year, rice production will remain stable, but sorghum and millet productions will distinctly reduce . Production trends of roots and tubers are projected to be above last year and the average. Most cash and industrial crops will also record above-average production, except for cowpeas and palm oil.

    • Regional self-sufficiency with coarse grains (maize, millet, sorghum, and fonio) will continue, but the estimated marketable surplus for the 2021/22 marketing year (MY), which spans from October 2021 to September 2022, will be entirely below both last year and the average. At the same time, regional structural dependence on international rice and wheat imports will strengthen with projected rising requirements than previous years
       

    • Regionally validated crop production data forecast aggregate cereal production at 73.3 million metric tons (MT) for 2021/22, which will be a decrease of two percent compared to the previous year (2020/21) and an increase of three percent compared to the previous five-year average (2016/17 to 2020/21). Specific production decreases compared to last year were reported mainly in Sahel countries due  to unfavorable rainfall patterns and insecurity. Maize production is expected to increase from last year, rice production will remain stable, but sorghum and millet production will decline (Figure 1). Production trends of roots and tubers are projected to be above last year and five-year averages. Most cash and industrial crops will also record above-average production, except for cowpeas and palm oil.

    • In addition to insecurity limiting access to pastoral resources, biomass production is below last year in much of the Sahel. Livestock market supplies remain dynamic, but cross-border demand is below average. Prices have increased to near or above average for small ruminants, but cattle prices remained stable or lower due to reduced exports.

    • Following the COVID-19 related shocks in 2020, most countries have growth prospects in 2021 and 2022, mainly due to increased exports and higher commodity prices. However, there are uncertainties given the potential resurgence of COVID-19 cases with Omicron variant and a return of restrictions, the fall of global oil prices, insecurity, political instability, further decline in remittances, and currency depreciation and inflation.

    Get the latest food security updates in your inbox Sign up for emails

    The information provided on this Website is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.

    Jump back to top