Supply and Market Outlook

West Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook

December 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
CILSS
WFP
FAO

Key Messages

  • Regionally validated crop production data forecast aggregate cereal production at 73.3 million metric tons (MT) for 2021/22, which will be a decrease of two percent compared to the previous year (2020/21) and an increase of three percent compared to the previous five-year average (2016/17 to 2020/21). Specific production decreases compared to last year were reported mainly in Sahel countries due mainly to unfavorable rainfall patterns and insecurity. Maize production is expected to increase from last year, rice production will remain stable, but sorghum and millet productions will distinctly reduce . Production trends of roots and tubers are projected to be above last year and the average. Most cash and industrial crops will also record above-average production, except for cowpeas and palm oil.

  • Regional self-sufficiency with coarse grains (maize, millet, sorghum, and fonio) will continue, but the estimated marketable surplus for the 2021/22 marketing year (MY), which spans from October 2021 to September 2022, will be entirely below both last year and the average. At the same time, regional structural dependence on international rice and wheat imports will strengthen with projected rising requirements than previous years
     

  • Regionally validated crop production data forecast aggregate cereal production at 73.3 million metric tons (MT) for 2021/22, which will be a decrease of two percent compared to the previous year (2020/21) and an increase of three percent compared to the previous five-year average (2016/17 to 2020/21). Specific production decreases compared to last year were reported mainly in Sahel countries due  to unfavorable rainfall patterns and insecurity. Maize production is expected to increase from last year, rice production will remain stable, but sorghum and millet production will decline (Figure 1). Production trends of roots and tubers are projected to be above last year and five-year averages. Most cash and industrial crops will also record above-average production, except for cowpeas and palm oil.

  • In addition to insecurity limiting access to pastoral resources, biomass production is below last year in much of the Sahel. Livestock market supplies remain dynamic, but cross-border demand is below average. Prices have increased to near or above average for small ruminants, but cattle prices remained stable or lower due to reduced exports.

  • Following the COVID-19 related shocks in 2020, most countries have growth prospects in 2021 and 2022, mainly due to increased exports and higher commodity prices. However, there are uncertainties given the potential resurgence of COVID-19 cases with Omicron variant and a return of restrictions, the fall of global oil prices, insecurity, political instability, further decline in remittances, and currency depreciation and inflation.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics