West Africa Supply and Market Outlook

Preliminary crop assessment figures in West Africa indicate that the 2018/19 aggregate cereal production will be 74.2 million metric tons (MMT), eight percent above last season (2017/18) and 19 percent above the five-year average (2013/14 to 2017/18). Although national-level production decreases are expected in structurally deficit countries, production of major cereal crops has grown significantly compared to last year, namely maize production.

West Africa is expected to have an increased gross marketable surplus of coarse grains and a decreased rice deficit compared to last year and the average. Projected coarse grain surpluses, namely maize, will be in high demand from agro-industries. The region will continue to rely on international rice imports, although to a slightly lesser degree than in recent years and international wheat imports will be sustained at above-average quantities.

The 2017/18 marketing year (MY) was marked by below-average supply and above-average demand due to limited crop performance and production deficits in the Sahel, stock withholding, and elevated source market prices. In Coastal countries, prices were primarily pushed up by inflation.

With good harvest prospects and favorable current market trends, price trends will be below last year but will range from average to moderately above average at the national level, except in Chad and Far North Cameroon where they will be below average. Imported and local rice prices will remain above average in Coastal countries. Prices and markets and trade activities will remain atypical in deficit and conflict affected zones including the Tibesti region of Chad; northern and central Mali; and the Liptako-Gourma region across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger; and northeast Nigeria and the Greater Lake Chad basin. Declining global crude oil prices and upcoming general elections also stand to negatively affect stability and the macroeconomic outlook for Nigeria and the surrounding region.

Global market supplies of rice, wheat, and maize are expected to remain above average in MY 2018/19 despite expectations for lower wheat production. Prices will continue to ease up until the end of the year, but a marginal increase is projected for 2019.

The pastoral situation in the Sahel is much better than last season due to decent rainfall. The pastoral lean season will be normal. However, an early transhumance may occur from localized deficit areas and livestock feeding, and marketing will be disrupted in insecure conflict zones.