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West Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook

  • Supply and Market Outlook
  • West Africa
  • December 7, 2016
West Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook

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  • Key Messages
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    Key Messages
    • Aggregate regional cereal production is expected to be above average in 2016/17, contributing to generally stable supply and prices. Regional maize and rice production reached record high levels.

    • Areas experiencing below average production include import-dependent Gambia, Liberia, and Mauritania. While national-level production in Nigeria is expected to reach record-high levels, production in conflict affected Northeastern Nigeria (Borno State) is expected to be well below average, but slightly above 2015/16 levels. 

    • Despite the recent depreciation of many regional currencies, imports from international markets will fill structural regional rice and wheat deficits. International markets are expected to remain well supplied and prices stable despite the La Niña conditions.

    • Staple food prices are expected to remain well above average in Nigeria and in Ghana. Trade with Nigeria will remain disrupted by the atypical import and export parity prices, driven by the depreciation of the Naira. Trade flows from Burkina Faso and Mali in the Central Basin are expected to help offset deficits in neighboring countries. 

    • Regional institutional procurement is expected to take place at average levels. Local and regional procurement may be particularly feasible in the Central Basin, and possible in the Eastern marketing basins as well. 

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