Famine Early Warning Systems Network

The mediocre performance of the rainy season led to deficits in pasture and water point regeneration in key areas across the Sahel. In localized northern cropping areas, it has also contributed to below-average main season (October-November 2017) and irrigated off season (January-March 2018) harvests.

Pastoral zones

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a remotely sensed measure of greenness that is used to proxy vegetative growth. At the end of the 2017 rainy season in October, the NDVI showed deficits in vegetative growth across pastoral and agropastoral areas of northern Senegal, Mauritania, and in to western Mali (Figure 2). More moderate, but still important, deficits were observed across some pastoral regions of northern Mali, northern Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. In many cases across the region, water points are also below-average (Figure 3), limiting the available surface water for animals. The below-average pasture levels and water point regeneration were corroborated during the annual end of season field assessments in late 2017, where all Sahelian countries noted pastoral resource deficits in at least some, if not most, areas.

Agropastoral zones

The Water Requirement Satisfaction Index, a water balance model that estimates the extent to which observed cumulative seasonal rainfall meets crop needs, indicates 2017 rainfall performance was mediocre, to even poor or failure, in meeting crop water needs in isolated agropastoral areas of the Sahel (Figure 4). This does not capture, however, the erratic time distribution of rainfall that impacted crops mid-season in central areas of the region. The end of season Evapotranspiration anomaly, another remotely sensed measure of plant health, better captures these impacts on cropping performance in agropastoral areas in 2017 (Figure 5), as does mid-season NDVI (Figure 6)[1]. While national-level agricultural production was near-average in Sahelian countries, the same annual end of season field assessments that identified pastoral resource deficits in late 2017 also confirmed localized cropping deficits in some agropastoral areas, which are important to consider when assessing the food security status of affected communities. In many of the same areas, the impacts of poor rainfall have carried into the off season, where below-average surface water availability for irrigated and flood recession agriculture is restricting cropping activities in some areas during the dry season.

Impacts by region

Mauritania and northern Senegal experienced the largest rainfall deficits in the region in 2017. Although deficits were more wide-spread in 2017, rainfall was similar to 2014, the last year to see significant pastoral and agropastoral rainfall deficits. In addition to registering below-average cumulative rainfall, the season was characterized by long dry spells, particularly at the beginning of the season. This led to significant pasture deficits across Mauritania and northern Senegal, where pasture is already relatively sparse in a typical year. Due to the limited pasture and fodder availability, transhumant pastoralists began their southern decent early at the end of the rains in September/October, as opposed to November/December in a typical year. In Mauritania, atypically large declines in livestock prices began in November as households began to destock animals, expecting livestock body conditions to deteriorate and in order to cover maintenance expenses for the rest of the herd. Livestock to cereal terms of trade are moderately below the recent average (Figure 7) and contribute to restricting household purchasing power. Household stocks from both main season rainfed and off season irrigated harvests, which typically accoun for up to half of poor households’ income, are also significantly below average. Focus group interviews in affected zones indicate that income from agricultural labor, which typically accounts for up to one fifth of poor households’ income, is less than half of normal. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity is already present in worst-affected areas and will continue through August/September 2018.

Deficits in Mali and Burkina Faso were more localized. Significant deficits were not noted at the national level, however localized areas of below-average pasture regeneration were observed, and both Mali and Burkina Faso are destination areas for transhumant pastoralists from neighboring countries. Early transhumant movements to Mali and Burkina Faso, with herders from neighboring countries remaining for longer than normal, has moderately increased competition for available pasture, browse, and water. Additionally, ongoing insecurity in both countries has impacted transhumant movements. Livestock prices in Mali and Burkina Faso remain generally average, with households beginning to increase sales in advance of the lean season. Worst-affected areas of Mali and Burkina Faso will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September 2018.

Pasture deficits across Niger and Chad, while not as significant as those observed in Mauritania and northern Senegal, are more significant than in Mali and Burkina Faso. For the third consecutive year, Niger has seen mediocre regeneration of pasture and water resources across the pastoral and agropastoral belt. For the 2017/18 pastoral season in Chad, two thirds of the country has registered significant pasture deficits, including all northern pastoral regions. Transhumant movements began a month early in both countries. The limited availability of pasture in Niger and Chad, as well as insecurity in northeast Nigeria and the Lake Chad region, which prevents typical herder movements, mean pastoralists are seeking grazing for their animals in atypical areas – often further west from Niger or further south in Chad. Livestock prices are 10 to 30 percent below average, owing in part to increased supply on markets. A more significant decrease in livestock body conditions is expected in the coming months, which is expected to impact livestock sale prices further. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity is expected among worst-affected populations across the pastoral belt in Niger and Chad.