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Grain prices on a number of markets remained unchanged or continued to move downwards in January and February of this year. In general, the difference in prices between net‐surplus and net‐deficit areas favors a flow of grain into the Sahel. There are signs that these same trends are continuing into March.
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Prices for local grains on certain markets in Mali are at historically high levels, pointing to food access problems for poor, market‐dependent households, particularly at the height of the lean season between June/July and August.
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According to the CILSS, revised grain production estimates for West Africa and the Sahel in particular are near or above the five‐year average. In general, the rise in coarse grain prices across the region between October and December of last year was due mostly to the combined effects of the late harvest and a significantly stronger and earlier than usual institutional and household demand. Thus, it is highly likely that market supplies will suffice to meet demand as long as there is an unrestricted flow of trade.
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The degree of market effectiveness in moving commodities from surplus to deficit areas varies. Price spreads between net production and net consumption areas of Mali and Mauritania are larger than usual, signaling a stronger than usual demand, a smaller than usual supply, and higher than usual informal trade barriers. Civil security threats in northern Mali and northeastern Nigeria (a key source of supplies for the Sahelian region of Chad) are also contributing to market stress.
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The equilibrium between market supply and demand and food access is precarious at best. Risk factors include:
- possible shortages and inadequate flows of maize and sorghum into net‐consumption areas of Mali and Mauritania during the lean season;
- low grain availability and a decline in demand for livestock in the Sahelian region of Chad with the closure of that country’s borders with Nigeria; and
- volatile markets and supply chains in conflict‐affected areas.
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Occasionally, FEWS NET will publish a Special Report that serves to provide an in-depth analysis of food security issues of particular concern that are not covered in FEWS NET’s regular monthly reporting. These reports may focus on a specific factor driving food security outcomes anywhere in the world during a specified period of time. For example, in 2019, FEWS NET produced a Special Report on widespread flooding in East Africa and its associated impacts on regional food security.