Minimal acute food insecurity leading up to the lean season

• Household food stocks are strong as result of the above-average harvest of staple food crops for the 2013/2014 main cropping season. Poor households will earn normal revenues from typical income generating activities through June 2014. This situation will allow them to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through at least June 2014.
• Though it is beyond the cycle analyzed for this scenario period, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity is expected through the end of the consumption year in September, barring any acute chocks to the minor harvest or seasonal wages.

The above-average rice harvest will finish in January and contributes to improve household and market stocks. In addition, ongoing yam and fresh maize harvests are improving food availability and diversity at the national level. This has increased food access for poor households and maintains typical seasonal income levels from crop sales. As a result, most poor households are able to meet their food needs in typical fashion through own production, and those who depend on market purchase do so without many constraints. Currently, farmers are engaging in land preparation for rice production for the next cropping season to begin in April/May. Low land cassava planted in November has a normal phenological development and harvest is expected seasonably in June, coinciding with the lean season. Household food security should remain favorable until the upcoming lean season, which will begin as usual in June. Then households are expected to resort more to typical income generating activities during the lean season to aide in market purchase.

Markets are well supplied with both newly harvested local rice and imported varieties. Household are selling surplus production in order to purchase certain non-food expenditures, while major traders take advantage of the opportunity to replenish their stocks. The increase in food availability at the national level through January and corresponding decrease in household demand on the main markets follows the normal seasonal tendency. Due to regular market supplies, staple foods are expected to follow normal seasonal trends through June, providing typical food access for poor households that resort to market purchase.

Household food security will remain favorable due to the good levels of household food stocks from recent and continuing harvests, regular market supply and normal income earning activities, including petty-trade, farm and forest products sales, local labor, and mining activities. As a result, Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) is expected throughout the country through June 2014. In the absence of any negative chocks beyond the cycle analyzed for this scenario period through June, it is expected that Minimal levels (IPC Phase 1) of acute food insecurity will also persist through the end of the consumption year, ending in September.