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The strong recovery of rainfall leads to a near-average agricultural forecast

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Senegal
  • September 2013
The strong recovery of rainfall leads to a near-average agricultural forecast

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook through December 2013
  • Key Messages
    • Favorable rainfall since August has allowed crops to develop normally throughout the country. Forecasts call for average to heavy rainfall, which will allow for adequate crop growth, and should support good production, depending on the area.

    • The sell-off of stocks seen in agricultural areas in light of the favorable rains and the availability of green-harvested maize, cowpeas, and groundnuts will help provide relief to poor households during the lean season, which will end in October with the main harvest.

    • Thanks to the stable price of main staple foods, normal income earning, availability from the near-average harvest, and terms of trade for goats/millet that favor pastoralists, households will continue to experience Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) until December.

    AREA

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    FORECAST ANOMALIES

    National

    Abundant rainfall during the second dekad of the month increased the risk of crop losses due to soil saturation in southwestern areas, where the risk of flooding was high.

    The typical, gradual decrease in precipitation, despite the ACMAD forecast that rainfall will continue until October, will mitigate crop losses.


    Projected Outlook through December 2013

    The abundant rainfall seen throughout August made up for the rain deficit recorded at the country’s central and northern gauging stations. Cumulative totals from May 1 to September 20 were normal to above-normal. This positive trend should continue until the end of October as indicated by ACMAD forecasts and hoped for by technical experts seeking a favorable season. Plant development is generally considered g positive due to rainfall, but is delayed in Louga, a highly productive area where planting was significantly delayed. Green harvesting of maize, cowpeas, and groundnuts has begun in Kaolack and Kolda, and spread throughout the country. As usual, this will improve household food availability during the lean season. Livestock are fattening thanks to good conditions, favoring good milk production for pastoralists.

    The selling-off of cereals in central growing areas is increasing as the rainfall outlook remains favorable and green harvests of maize, cowpeas, and groundnuts become available throughout the country. Increasing amounts of local cereals continue to flow toward consumption centers; this will help prices to remain stable or even decrease. Millet prices are essentially stable compared to July; sorghum and maize prices are 15 and 16 percent lower, respectively. They are still higher than the five-year average by 15 percent for pearl millet, 7 percent for sorghum, and 3 percent for maize. Cereal availability has improved both in markets and in households benefiting from green harvesting.

    The main food cereal, broken and imported regular rice, remains very available on all markets. Generally, the price of this commodity is stable compared to last month, except in Tamba where it has dropped by about 17 percent. Prices are 5 to 10 percent lower than in August 2012 except in Dakar and Fatick, where they have fallen by more than 15 percent. The price of rice is 6 percent lower than average.

    Increasing demand for livestock, particularly sheep in light of the upcoming Tabaski holiday, will help keep small-ruminant prices rising, thus increasing herders’ income. The cattle supply has improved over last month, causing prices to drop by about 7 percent. Small-ruminant prices have gone up by 3 percent for goats and 10 percent for sheep. The government is taking steps to facilitate importation from neighboring countries to ensure that sheep are available and to reduce prices.

    Seasonal household access to green-harvested maize, cowpeas, and groundnuts is providing poor households with relief from the lean season in terms of both food and income sources, drawn from the sale of harvested products from September to December. This trend of improved food availability will continue until the main harvest in October, reducing household dependence on the markets. In October, the abundance of harvested products will bring the lean season to an end in farming areas, allowing households to rebuild their stores. Also in farming areas, income derived from seasonal activities and the sale of harvested products, which is at average levels, will give households greater market access with the resulting decrease in food prices. Continuing improvement in the terms of trade for goats/millet, following favorable and stable livestock prices and the reduction in food prices that has begun in major farming areas, will favor pastoralist market access. The same is true of urban centers, where good availability of food products on the markets is causing prices to fall. Milk, which provides income and food for herding households, is in good supply, ensuring there is little cause for concern in terms of food security. The food insecurity level will continue to be Minimal (IPC Phase 1), in view of the factors mentioned above. However, households impacted by flooding will have difficulty rebuilding their assets and adequately meeting their food needs.

    Figures Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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