Minimal food insecurity in 2012/13 due to above-average harvests and normal incomes

• The ongoing harvests of various crops, including millet, maize, rice, groundnuts, cowpeas, fonio, and horticulture crops, are likely to be average this season, improving poor household access to basic foods. 

• Prices of imported broken rice, the most important staple food consumed by poor households in Senegal, have been relatively stable in September as compared to August. With a few exceptions, imported broken rice prices are lower than prices last year at this time (-3 to -8 percent). Local cereal prices are currently falling but remain 13-23 percent higher than last year. For poor households who sell a part of their cereal stock in order to generate cash to purchase imported broken rice, these high cereal prices are providing good incomes.

• Good household food stock levels, coupled with stable imported broken rice prices and normal income levels, will result in Minimal (Phase 1) food insecurity through at least March 2013.

Cumulative rainfall totals across the country have been above-normal to normal, except in Velingara and north Tambacounda where small rainfall deficits were reported. However, these deficits are not expected to impact harvest levels in these areas. Harvests have been ongoing for major crops (millet, maize, rice, groundnut, cowpea, fonio, etc.) since September. Due to the good progression of the rainy season and diverse assistance provided to farmers (ex. seeds, fertilizer), the 2012/13 cereal harvests are expected to exceed last year's poor production levels, and will likely be average to slightly above-average compared to a typical year. Insufficient and poor quality groundnut seeds, due to last season's poor production, may have caused a reduction in the area planted in this cash crop this year. This may result in groundnut production levels that are slightly below-average to average this year.  Harvests of dry season crops (vegetables, rice, maize, etc.), which typically occur from January through May, will likely be good due to the high water levels for irrigation. This may improve diets and could possibly increase household incomes, depending on price trends.

Good harvest prospects have caused local cereal prices to fall in September compared to August (4 percent for millet and sorghum, and 7 percent for local rice). Imported broken rice prices have been relatively in September as compared to August. On average, prices of imported broken rice and local rice are below last year’s prices (4 percent and 8 percent, respectively). Other local cereals in September have seen an annual price increase varying from 13 to 23 percent, and are 16 to 31 percent above the five-year average. For poor households who are selling a portion of their cereal harvests in order to generate cash to purchase imported broken rice, these high cereal prices are providing good incomes. However, prices of local cereals are expected to continue to decline in November-December as market supply improves, although prices will likely remain similar to slightly below last year's levels. This is because households are expected to reconstitute their food stocks this season after last season's poor harvest, thus reducing market supply compared to a normal year at this time. Incomes earned through typical livelihood activities (ex. petty trade, selling animals and forest products (charcoal, wood, wild fruits, etc.), transportation services, local labor) will enable poor households who are market dependant to access essential food and non-food needs.

Due to abundant rainfall, sufficient levels of pasture and water are available to meet livestock needs. As a result, transhumance from northern to southern areas will likely start one month later than usual, in November rather than October. Livestock prices have been relatively stable in September, due to the good availability of pasture and water which have reduced livestock maintenance costs. The level of livestock supplied to local markets from Mauritania has been below-average this year and as a result, the price of sheep will likely increase in October with high demand during Tabaski. The livestock-to-cereal terms of trade will remain favorable to pastoralists. Milk will also remain available through at least December to pastoral households for their own consumption and for sale, improving both diets and incomes.

Poor households in areas that faced below-average 2011/2012 harvests and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity are currently replenishing their household stocks. Households will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity now through at least the end of the projection period in March 2013, due to near-average harvests, good dry season cropping prospects, normal income levels, and stable imported broken rice prices.