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Normal 2012/13 consumption year expected for poor households

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Senegal
  • November 2012
Normal 2012/13 consumption year expected for poor households

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook through March 2013
  • Key Messages
    • The 2012/13 cereal production is forecasted to be 52 percent higher than last year – a bad year – and 16 percent higher than the five-year average. Other crops (such as groundnuts, cowpeas, and cotton) have also generally performed well and will likely improve poor household access to basic foods and incomes. 

    • Good household food stock levels, coupled with stable or slightly declining imported broken rice prices and normal income levels, will result in Minimal (Phase 1) food insecurity through at least March 2013.

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    National

    No current anomalies of concern.

    No projected anomalies of concern.


    Projected Outlook through March 2013

    As of November, millet harvests have been completed and harvests of other crops, such as maize, rice, sorghum, groundnut, and fonio, are near completion. The 2012/13 agricultural survey indicates a 10 percent increase in the area planted in cereal crops, a 71 percent increase for cowpeas, and an 18 percent decrease for groundnuts. Insufficient and poor quality seeds, due to last season's poor production, may have led to the reduction in the area planted in groundnuts this year, although this reduced area will likely be compensated by the larger area planted in cowpeas, which can be treated as a cash crop. The Directorate for Analysis, Prediction and Statistics (DAPS) estimates the provisional 2012/13 cereal crop production at 1,673,730 MT, which is 52 percent higher than last year and 16 percent higher than the five-year average (Figure 2).

    Imported broken rice prices have been relatively stable in October as compared to September, with prices varying between 282 and 300 Franc CFA/kg. Good harvest prospects have caused local cereal prices (millet and maize) to fall in October compared to September, although millet prices remain 7 to 27 percent higher than October 2011. Although local cereal prices will continue to decline in November-December as market supply improves, prices are expected to remain similar to last year's levels. This is due to unusually high demand and low supply as households, communities, and food processers reconstitute their stocks after last season's poor harvest.  For poor households selling a portion of their cereal harvests in order to generate cash to purchase imported broken rice, the high local cereal prices are providing good incomes.

    Cowpeas and groundnuts are widely sold as cash crops at this time of the year. However, these sales have led to high market supply and declining prices (-8 to -52 percent and -10 to -29 percent compared to September 2012, for cowpeas and groundnuts respectively). With a few exceptions, cowpea prices decreased (-5 to -53 percent) and groundnut prices increased (4 to 13 percent) compared to last year at this time.

    Due to abundant rainfall, pasture and water are available to meet livestock needs, reducing maintenance costs. The level of animals supplied to local Senegalese markets from Mauritania and Mali has been below-average this year. This, coupled with high demand during Tabaski, resulted in sheep prices in October 2012 being almost twice that of last year. High demand and low supply will continue until next January, due to end-of-the-year celebrations and households selling fewer animals as the harvests replenish their food stocks and provide income. This will cause livestock-to-cereal terms of trade to remain favorable to pastoralists. Milk will also remain available through at least December to pastoral households for their own consumption and for sale, improving both diets and incomes.

    Harvests of dry season crops (vegetables, rice, maize, etc.) will likely be good due to the normal to above-normal water levels for irrigation. This may improve diets and increase household incomes, depending on price trends. Incomes earned through other typical livelihood activities (ex. petty trade, selling forest products (charcoal, wood, wild fruits, etc.), transportation services, local labor) will also allow poor households, who are market dependant, to access essential food and non-food needs.

    Poor households in areas that faced below-average 2011/2012 harvests and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity during the June-September 2012 period are now replenishing their household stocks. Due to near-average harvests, good dry season cropping prospects, normal income levels, and stable imported broken rice prices, most households will likely face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through at least March 2013.  

    Figures Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Provisional Crop Production Estimates for Various Crops in Senegal

    Figure 2

    Provisional Crop Production Estimates for Various Crops in Senegal

    Source: Directorate for Analysis, Prediction and Statistics (DAPS)

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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