The premature market dependence of poor households undermines food security

• There are average to good production prospects for off-season market garden and rice crops across the country. Income from market gardening activities through April and the availability of rice crops in June-July will improve household incomes and diets in these crop-producing areas.

• The limited availability of financing for the marketing season for peanut crops is negatively affecting the incomes of peanut farmers, who are resorting to selling their crops on weekly markets at prices 12.5 percent below the official price. The sale of cereal crops in lieu of peanut crops is heightening the vulnerability of agropastoral households.

• The poor pastoral conditions in the northern and central reaches of the country will reduce the availability of dairy products for households in these areas. Shortfalls in livestock production and an above-average mortality risk will negatively affect household incomes and reduce the consumption of animal products by agropastoral and pastoral households.

• Their below-average total incomes and larger than usual needs as a result of the premature depletion of their stocks of crops from their last harvest (in March instead of June, which is the norm) are preventing poor households from meeting their food needs. Thus, these households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of acute food insecurity between March and April and will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as of May.

Harvests of off-season market garden crops across the country are still in progress, with generally average to good production prospects. The job opportunities afforded by these activities and the planting of rice crops in the Valley will generate an average stream of revenue for poor households, improving their incomes.

Market supplies across the country are adequate. Markets are well-stocked with locally grown and imported rice and inventory levels are higher than last year and above-average. However, supplies of locally grown cereal crops on rural markets and trader inventories in urban areas are below-average and lower than at the same time last year, which is more than likely due to the shortfall in crop production for 2014-15. Seasonal movements in the prices of locally grown cereal crops on markets in southern areas of the country have brought them down by five to 30 percent from last month, though they are still six to 20 percent above-average.

The flow of other types of commodities trade is still affected by the closure of the country’s borders with its Ebola-stricken neighbors despite the lifting of this measure a month ago. In fact, according to the CILSS market assessment mission in February 2015, the volume of trade in certain commodities such as palm oil on southern markets (in Diaobé, Kolda, Sédhiou, and Ziguinchor) is well-below-average.

The marketing season for peanut crops beginning in December 2014 is still ongoing, though business is slower than last year. The limited ability of major dealers to obtain needed financing is causing them to default on payments and causing many peanut farmers to sell their crops on weekly markets at prices 12.5 percent below the official price. The resulting loss of revenue is weakening the market access of poor households whose food stocks were depleted earlier than usual due to poor crop production. These problems are prompting households in urgent need of cash to resort to selling their cereal crops, hastening the depletion of their cereal stocks and further undermining their food security. Terms of trade for unshelled peanuts versus regular imported rice are down from last year and below-average.

Poor pastoral conditions have hastened the departure of transhumant livestock herds from central and northern areas of the country, thereby limiting the availability of dairy products for area households. The poor physical condition of livestock herds, particularly those of poor households without the means with which to properly maintain them, is reducing the market value of livestock. The resulting loss of revenue from the sale of livestock and dairy products is negatively affecting the market access of poor households.

Poor agropastoral households in the central and northern reaches of the country affected by shortfalls in their crop production and farm incomes are resorting to market purchase for their food supplies two months earlier than usual. Poor households in the Thiès, Louga, Matam, Kolda, and northern Tambacounda regions with difficulty meeting their food needs have ramped up their casual labor, fishing and logging activities, and migration more than usual while, at the same time, depleting their livelihoods (by borrowing and selling livestock, nonproductive assets, etc.) in an effort to better meet their needs. Poor households unable to afford expenditures on other items such as health, education, and farm inputs and turning to the least expensive foods will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between March and April. The expected steeper than average rise in the prices of local commodities between April and September will further curtail the market access of poor households. This will heighten their reliance on coping strategies for improving their food security which, in the long run, will only prevent them from meeting essential food and nonfood expenses in May-June. At that point, they will resort to cutting the size and number of their meals, selling productive assets and, in the case of pastoral households, culling their herds.  This will put them in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between May and September and could trigger an escalation in acute malnutrition. Government assistance programs supplying 18,000 metric tons of rice and programs for the prevention and treatment of malnutrition in areas in crisis during the lean season between May and August will help limit the deterioration in conditions and use of negative coping strategies. The availability of green crops in September will ease the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions faced by poor households in these crop-growing areas during the long lean season, until the main harvest in October 2015.