Skip to main content

Above average incomes and local cereals stocks suggest minimal food insecurity throughout next June

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Senegal
  • March 2013
Above average incomes and local cereals stocks suggest minimal food insecurity throughout next June

Download the Report

  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook through June 2013
  • Key Messages
    • The above average incomes earned from the good marketing season of groundnut and other leguminous crops have reduced pressure on households to offload cereal stocks, increasing cereal supply in local markets between January and February. 

    • Good household food stock levels, coupled with declining imported broken rice prices and normal income levels will help to maintain Minimal (Phase 1) food insecurity through next June.

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    National

    • The active and profitable commercialization of groundnut and the attractive prices of this year have resulted to above average income for famers and less than normal supply of markets in local cereals.
    • The groundnut commercialization is slowing down in March as households stocks are running low. Prices will likely remain high due to diminishing supply and high local demand.
    • Cereal producers have low pressure to offload cereal stocks due to above incomes earned from groundnut commercialization. Cereal supply will continue to improve on local markets but will remain tempered by farmer speculation regarding profitable sales. Prices are likely to remain high in the season.

    Projected Outlook through June 2013

    The main period for groundnut commercialization is coming to a close, allowing farmers to devote more time to harvesting activities.  Dry season harvests, primarily for vegetables and fresh maize, continue to supply local markets and provide normal incomes to farmers, resulting in improved diets. Irrigated rice production is progressing in the Senegal River valley, where the harvest is expected to begin in April.  In the eastern parts of the valley, planting has started and the harvest will occur around June, coinciding with the start of the agro pastoral lean season for poor households.

    In February 2013, groundnut prices are on average 8 percent higher than January and last year, and continue to provide good incomes to farmers. The price of niebe is on average 6 percent below last year levels with the highest decrease observed in Saint Louis (40 percent) followed by Diourbel (25 percent). However, these are extreme cases and overall, prices for niebe are 20-24 percent higher than average. 

    In February, the prices of imported broken rice, a widely consumed staple in Senegal, were stable compared to January but 10 percent below 2011 levels.  National stocks of imported broken rice are reportedly average and the high probability of stable prices through June suggests normal access to this staple food by the majority of households.

    In February, millet prices were reported to be stable at the national level. Compared to last year during the same period, millet prices are 6 percent higher, with the highest February increases observed in Ziguinchor, Kolda and Diourbel, (17, 21 and 27 percent respectively). These increases are largely attributable to low market supply and high demand for this commodity.  Maize prices are stable compared to January and last year, with prices that are 5-15 percent higher than the five year average, and remain elevated in part due to the household retention of cereal stocks. Local cereal supplies, particularly millet, will continue to increase will remain regulated by slow marketing of household stocks.  Prices are likely to remain higher than average for this time of year given the needs for households and communities to reconstitute their stocks, in addition to normal or increasing demand of traders, processors and consumers. 

    In the second half of January, livestock prices were reported to be 18-25 percent higher than December 2012 and 24-36 percent higher than January 2012. In February and March, the supply remains average and continues to provide normal incomes to households even have fallen below December levels. Since October, terms of trade for livestock/imported broken rice have remained favorable to pastoralists due to the significant demand driven by multiple holidays and regular consumption, and good availability of water and pasture that reduced maintenance costs. Livestock prices will likely remain stable as higher than average household cereal stocks will delay the normal seasonal sales of animals for food purchase, and given the reduced flows of livestock from Mali.

    Dry season crop harvests (vegetables, maize, sweet potato) typically occurring from January through May, and irrigated rice harvested in the Senegal River Valley in February and June will likely be normal to above normal due to high water levels for irrigation. This should improve diets and support average to above average household incomes, depending on price trends for these products. Incomes earned through other typical livelihood activities like petty trade, selling forest products (charcoal, wood, wild fruits, etc.), transportation services, local labor, seasonal migration will allow poor market dependent households to access essential food and non-food needs. Households will likely face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through at least June 2013, due to near-average harvests, good dry season cropping prospects, normal income levels, and stable imported broken rice prices.  

    Figures Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

    Get the latest food security updates in your inbox Sign up for emails

    The information provided on this Website is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.

    Jump back to top