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Early depletion of harvest stocks will induce localized acute food insecurity

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Senegal
  • January 2014
Early depletion of harvest stocks will induce localized acute food insecurity

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook through June 2014
  • Key Messages
    • Crop production is approximately 17 percent below-average, reducing average food availability across the country, particularly for poor households in areas affected by large production deficits in the north and southeast. These households will have difficulty meeting their needs and will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity beginning in April.
    • Most poor households across the country will be able to resort to typical coping strategies to cover production deficits and increase household income to meet their food needs during this period when food prices are high. Thus, they should experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between now and June 2014.
    • After the repeated drops in prices between October and December, cereal prices were up slightly in January. The stable price of imported rice, which is still approximately seven percent below-average, is helping to facilitate household access to this foodstuff.

    Zone

    Current Anomalies

     Projected Anomalies

    National

    Attempted boycott of peanut sales by the country’s major oil manufacturer against the price increase

    The premature deterioration in the condition of rangelands for livestock in northern areas is raising concerns with respect to the lean season in pastoral areas and the massive influx of animal herds from Mauritania.

    The disruptions caused by this boycott will mean losses of expected income for farmers.

    The steady deterioration in pasture resources in northern areas is triggering unusual herd movements, with adverse effects on animal production and the incomes of pastoralists.

     


    Projected Outlook through June 2014

    The growing season for off-season market garden and rice crops is progressing normally in all parts the country, and in the Senegal River Valley in particular. The farm input assistance from various organizations and good flood levels bode well for average to good harvests of market garden crops between January and April and rice crops between May and June. This output is important for areas reporting shortfalls in rainfed crop production. According to official data, crop production for the rainfed cropping season is approximately 17 percent below-average and 12 percent lower than last year due to the  disruption of crop growth and development by the late start of the rains and poor distribution of rainfall and problems with flooding and crop pests. Crop production deficits are affecting the food security of agropastoral households in the Matam, Diourbel, Kafrine, Louga, and Fatick regions, the coastal area (Saint Louis), and the Kédougou area in the southern part of the country. Production deficits will lead to depleted household stocks in or around April, approximately two months sooner than usual.

    Market cereal supplies are up from last month with the growing shipments of freshly harvested local crops and the large stocks of rice held by importers. The current availability of fresh crops is reducing household dependence on market purchase, which is normal at this time of year. However, the levels of household food stocks are lower than average due to below-average production, particularly in the northern and central reaches of the country.

    Following the decrease in prices for locally grown cereals crops since October, prices for millet and maize are up slightly by approximately four percent and three percent, respectively, while prices for sorghum and locally grown rice have stabilized. Prices for millet/sorghum and maize are above the five-year average by approximately 20 percent and 10 percent, respectively, while prices for locally grown rice are slightly below-average. The price of imported rice, the most widely consumed staple, is unchanged from last month and approximately seven percent below-average. Food prices will continue to rise between February and June, in line with seasonal trends.

    Sales of crops in general and peanuts in particular are generating above-average levels of household income to help facilitate market access. At approximately 17 to 20 percent above-average, the higher price of pulses is contributing to the tightening of market cereal supplies, which is sustaining current high price levels. A threatened boycott of peanut sales by oil manufacturers against what they consider to be an unduly high administered price is a real concern. The resulting proliferation of parallel markets is preventing farmers from profitable prices, particularly in areas with production deficits.

    The high demand for livestock for the pilgrimage to Touba tightened supply despite livestock trade flows from Mali and Mauritania. Prices for goats are up by approximately three percent and prices for cattle and sheep are virtually unchanged from last month. Though livestock are still experiencing normal body conditions, future deteriorating conditions in stock-raising areas, particularly in northern areas suffering from rainfall deficits, will affect animal production, translating into below-average incomes for pastoral households. The lean season for pastoral populations, which begins in March and is expected to be difficult in these stock-raising areas, will see lower prices for livestock and erode the purchasing power of poor pastoral households.

    Poor households in agriculture zones take advantage of stocks from on-farm production in addition to their usual income-generating activities, which should limit their market dependence through March/April. Their average earnings from typical activities (petty trade, paid labor, wood sales) and from income from crop sales from their below-average harvests should sustain their food access through June. Most of the population will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between January and June. Nevertheless, poor agropastoral households in flood-stricken areas and areas affected by production shortfalls in Louga, Matam, and Diourbel regions will be forced to resort to coping strategies earlier than normal to meet their food needs due to their premature market dependence and lower farm incomes, and they will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes between April and June. However, with normal employment and income-earning opportunities, any further deterioration to food insecurity conditions in these areas is unlikely, maintaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity between June and the end of the consumption year in September.

    Figures Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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