Good marketing season, minimal food insecurity throughout next June

• The 2012/13 good marketing season for groundnut and other leguminous crops will likely improve household incomes and enable access to basic food needs, primarily  imported broken rice, through next June. 

• Average to above-average household food stock levels, coupled with stable or slightly declining imported broken rice prices and normal income levels will result in Minimal (Phase 1) food insecurity through next June.

Dry season cropping is progressing well compared to average, particularly in the northern Senegal river valley, for  vegetables, maize and irrigated rice. The main cereal harvests are nearly complete and households stocks are reported to be average to above-average, and should last for 4-6 months this year. The Directorate for Analysis, Prediction and Statistics (DAPS) estimates that 2012/13 cereal production is about 52 %higher than 2011 and 16 % above average (cf. table below).

                                    Forecasted production in 2012/13 in metric ton, compared to 2011 and 5 years average (Data source: DAPS Senegal, Nov. 2012)

Rural households are currently accessing cereal primarily through the consumption of their own stocks.  As a result,  markets are moderately supplied in local cereals but are well-supplied in groundnut and imported broken rice.  The open market for groundnut trade this year has invited new commercial actors and created competition among buyers, resulting in traders purchasing groundnuts for as much as 200-225 XOF/kg, instead of the new official minimum purchasing price of 190 XOF/kg , established at 165 XOF/kg earlier in the season. In general, in December 2012, groundnut prices are 6-12 percent higher than last year and 21-39 percent above average, providing good incomes to farmers. The prices of niebe are to be stable at high levels given poor production in 2011 and high demand this year, and  will continue to provide better than average income for producers. 

In December, the prices of imported broken rice, a widely consumed staple in Senegal, were  stable compared to November and the 5 year average but below 2011 levels by an average of 5 percent.  National stocks of imported broken rice are reported to be average and the high probability of stable prices through June suggest normal access by the majority of households.

Between November and December millet prices decreased in Dakar, Ziguinchor and  Kedougou by 4 to 12 percent) while the majority of markets elsewhere suggest price stability.  Millet prices have increased by 12-27 percent in some markets, specifically and Fatick, Matam and Tambacounda.  Except Dakar and Kaffrine, all markets display prices higher than last year at this time (5-28 percent). As compared to the five year average, prices are globally about 20 percent higher for millet, 14 percent for sorghum and 15 percent for maize. Elevated prices this year are in part explained by household retention of cereal stocks coupled with good prices of leguminous crops, which are providing favorable incomes, thereby reducing incentives for producers to sell cereal on the market.  In addition, good incomes from the sale of cash crops and the currently low prices of imported broken rice reduce the incentive to offload cereal on the market, as would be typical for this time of year, particularly for millet. Local cereal supplies are likely to remain moderate over the coming months with seasonal stability or slightly increasing prices due to the needs for households and communities to reconstitute their stocks (depleted last year after poor production), in addition to the normal or increasing demand of traders, processors and consumers. 

Livestock prices have remained stable and favorable to pastoralists since October due to the significant demand driven by multiple holidays and regular consumption, and good availability of water and pasture that reduced maintenance costs. Livestock prices will likely remain stable as above normal household cereal stocks will delay normal seasonal sales of animals for food purchase, and given the reduced flows of livestock  from markets to Mali and Mauritania.

Harvests of dry season crops (vegetables, rice, maize, etc.), typically occurring from January through May, will likely be normal to above normal due to high water levels for irrigation. This may improve diets and could possibly increase household incomes, depending on price trends for these products. Incomes earned through other typical livelihood activities (petty trade), selling forest products (charcoal, wood, wild fruits, etc.), transportation services, local labor, seasonal migration) will allow poor market dependent households to access essential food and non-food needs.

Households will likely face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through at least June 2013, due to near-average harvests, good dry season cropping prospects, normal income levels, and stable imported broken rice prices.