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Flood-affected areas to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between June and September

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Senegal
  • February 2016
Flood-affected areas to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between June and September

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook through September 2016
  • Key Messages
    • Markets across the country still have adequate cereal supplies from the 65 percent above-average cereal production for 2015/16. The availability of stocks of own-produced foods is providing households with average food access, reducing their market dependence during the current post-harvest period.

      • The major government effort to significantly boost off-season rice production through its program promoting rice self-sufficiency between now and 2017 will help ensure a better than average availability of this preferred food. This is creating better food and income-generating opportunities for poor households through farm labor, and even through crop sales.
    • The earlier than usual start of the lean season with the depletion of food stocks following below-average production is causing poor households in Matam, Kanel, Raneyrou, Linguère, and Louga Departments to resort to atypical coping strategies to improve their market access. There will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity in these areas between June and the next harvest, with some households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), although they represent less than 20 percent of households at the department level. 

    • Poor flood-affected households, or an estimated 70,000 people according to the 2016 Humanitarian Response Plan, are in need of assistance in order to rebuild their livelihoods and meet their food needs. These households will be in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity from March until the next harvest. 

    Zone

    Current anomalies

    Projected anomalies

    National

     

    • The delay in the raising of loans by oil traders for the purchasing of peanut crops helped foster the creation of parallel markets benefiting Asian buyers.
    • The growing demand for peanut crops from sources other than official collection centers at prices 12 percent above their official price will improve the incomes of farming households, provided these good prices do not lead them to sell even their seeds.

    National

     

    • Cropping prospects for off-season rice crops are above average, or an estimated 70,000 hectares.
    • Larger cropped areas and increased assistance will help strengthen rice availability by June-July, helping to improve household food access.

    National

     

    • The floods between July and September 2015 caused major damage to property and crops across the country.
    • The flood-induced losses of property and crops will continue to have a negative effect on poor flood-affected households, who will need to rebuild their livelihoods.

    Projected Outlook through September 2016

    Harvests of shallots and potatoes from market gardening activities are underway in all parts of the country. The above-average harvests between February and April will generate average to above-average levels of income for agricultural households. Related employment and income-earning opportunities are helping poor households improve their market access through agricultural labor. Off-season rice crops are currently being planted in the country’s usual off-season farming areas. An estimated 70,000 hectares are expected to be planted in these crops, which is well above the average of approximately 40,000 hectares. The resulting boost in production will mean a better than usual improvement in the availability of this crop in high demand by households across the country. The better than average outlook for on-farm employment will generate more income for poor households engaged in these activities.

    There are average to good pastoral conditions in all parts of the country. However, the brush fires already reported in the southern and eastern parts of the country are threatening pasture availability for livestock. The pasture deficits in northeastern areas of Raneyrou and Matam will trigger unusual herd movements in search of better pasture, which will negatively affect the diets of livestock and animal production in these areas. The reduction in income with the deterioration in the physical condition of livestock and smaller volume of milk and dairy production as of March-April will weaken the purchasing power of pastoral households.

    Markets across the country still have adequate cereal supplies. Depending on the market, there is an average to large availability of cereal crops from the above-average 2015/16 production, particularly for rice, which was 85 percent above average. There are signs of a seasonal decline in cereal prices on local markets. Prices for millet and maize are down by seven and six percent, respectively, from last month and below the five-year average by 15 percent in the case of millet and five percent in the case of maize, which is improving household food access.

    The price of regular broken rice, the most widely consumed cereal, is unchanged from last month and approximately seven percent below average. There will be a steady downward movement in prices through March, followed by a seasonal rise in prices. Price levels will remain near average, which will help the food access of poor households. The strong market demand from Asian buyers driving the price of shelled peanuts 13 percent above its official price is generating above-average sales revenues for farmers in peanut-producing areas. In effect, problems with the raising of loans are delaying the conduct of business at official collection centers, drawing farmers to parallel markets.

    According to the 2016 Humanitarian Response Plan, an estimated 70,000 people in poor households will need to rebuild their livelihoods destroyed by floods between June and September 2015, mainly in the Fatick, Kaolack, Saint Louis, Matam, and Dakar regions. These households will resort to atypical coping strategies involving increased wage labor, higher levels of borrowing, the choice of less expensive foods, and reductions in certain types of nonfood spending in order to maintain their food access as of March 2016. These strategies will be intensified in June with the start of the new season in spite of the average levels of wage income from agricultural labor. This will negatively affect the poorest households by reducing their food consumption and limiting certain nonfood expenditures in areas such as health and education, which is prejudicial to their already extremely critical nutritional situation.

    Their average to above-average food stocks from the good crop yields for 2015/16 and the near-average prices of cereal crops are helping to provide most households with average food access, which should maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity until the next harvest in October 2016. However, poor households in Matam, Kanel, Raneyrou, Linguère, and Louga departments will be facing an earlier than usual lean season beginning by May instead of in June, as is normally the case, triggered by shortfalls in crop production and income from livestock production. This will cause these households to implement atypical strategies involving migration, borrowing, and cutbacks in nonfood spending in order to meet their food needs. Accordingly, food security conditions in these areas will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between June and the next harvest in October 2016. With their lower incomes and affected livelihoods due to the 2015 crisis, some 200,000 people in these same areas will resort to negative coping strategies, reducing their meal size and their number of daily meals. This group will be in the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity between June and the next harvest in September 2016.

    Figures Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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