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Good marketing season, minimal food insecurity throughout next June

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Senegal
  • February 2013
Good marketing season, minimal food insecurity throughout next June

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook through June 2013
  • Key Messages
    • The good 2012/13 marketing season of groundnut and other leguminous for households is leading to an average supply of local cereals, available on the market at higher than normal prices.  

    • Improving household incomes through the sale of groundnut and local cereals at profitable levels will enable access to basic food needs, primarily imported broken rice, through next June. 

    • Good household food stock levels, coupled with stable or slightly declining imported broken rice prices and normal income levels will help to maintain Minimal (Phase 1) food insecurity through next June.

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    National

    • Liberalization of the groundnut trade continues to foster higher competition, providing above average incomes to farmers.

     

    • Despite strong cereal production in 2012, markets are moderately supplied in local cereals with prices 10 to 20 percent higher than last year and the 5 year average.
    • Groundnut prices are likely to continue to increase due to increasing demand and diminishing stocks at the household level.

     

    • Cereal producers have low pressure to offload cereal stocks but will respond to increasing demand as their stocks of groundnut are exhausted with the progression of the marketing season, resulting in seasonal price increases.

    Projected Outlook through June 2013

    Dry season cropping continues to progress well, particularly in the northern Senegal River valley, for vegetables, maize and irrigated rice. The Directorate for Analysis, Prediction and Statistics (DAPS) estimates that 2012/13 cereal production is about 52 %higher than 2011 and 16 % above average.

    Rural households are currently accessing cereal primarily through the consumption of their own stocks.  As a result, markets are moderately supplied in local cereals but are well-supplied in groundnut and imported broken rice.  The open market for groundnut trade this year has invited new commercial actors and created competition among buyers In general, in January 2013, groundnut prices are 10-23 percent higher than last year and 21-39 percent above average, providing good incomes to farmers. The prices of niebe are in general 10-28 percent below last year levels with the highest annual decrease observed in Saint Louis (-46 percent). In some markets ( Kolda, Matam, Ziguinchor and Thies), increases of 2-20 percent are observed compared to average, although in other markets prices have decreased from between 10 and 40%. 

    In January, the prices of imported broken rice, a widely consumed staple in Senegal, were stable compared to December and the 5 year average but 8 percent below 2011 levels.  National stocks of imported broken rice are reportedly average and the high probability of stable prices through June suggests normal access to this staple food by the majority of households.

    In January, millet prices showed normal monthly increases in Kaffrine and Kaolack, and above average monthly increases in Thies and Fatick.  When compared to the five year average, prices are about 20 percent higher for millet. Elevated prices this year are in part explained by household retention of cereal stocks coupled with good prices of leguminous crops, which are providing favorable incomes, thereby reducing incentives for producers to sell cereal on the market. Local cereal supplies are likely to remain moderate over the coming months with seasonal stability or slightly increasing prices due to the needs for households and communities to reconstitute their stocks, in addition to the normal or increasing demand of traders, processors and consumers. 

    Livestock supply in January remained average  but prices were reported to be 24-36 percent higher than last year and 18-25 percent higher than last December, providing  favorable terms of trade to pastoralists since October due to the significant demand driven by multiple holidays and regular consumption, and good availability of water and pasture that reduced maintenance costs. Livestock prices will likely remain stable as above normal household cereal stocks will delay normal seasonal sales of animals for food purchase, and given the reduced flows of livestock  from markets to Mali and Mauritania.

    Dry season crop harvests (vegetables, rice, maize), typically occurring from January through May, will likely be normal to above normal due to high water levels for irrigation. This should improve diets and support average to above average household incomes, depending on price trends for these products. Incomes earned through other typical livelihood activities (petty trade), selling forest products (charcoal, wood, wild fruits, etc.), transportation services, local labor, and seasonal migration, will allow poor market dependent households to access essential food and non-food needs.

    Households will likely face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through at least June 2013, due to near-average harvests, good dry season cropping prospects, normal income levels, and stable imported broken rice prices.  

    Figures Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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