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Good rebound in rainfall favors an average to good harvest.

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Senegal
  • August 2013
Good rebound in rainfall favors an average to good harvest.

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook through October 2013
  • Key Messages
    • The rebound in seasonal rainfall in late July helped jump-start cropping activities in major peanut and cereal-producing areas in the central reaches of the country, as well as in the north. Good planting rates of over 70 percent favor a good harvest assuming that weather forecasts predicting likely continued rainfall into October prove accurate. 

    • Stable prices and, availability (though limited) of on-farm food stocks are maintaining staple food access. There are no major anomalies in sources of household income, which are generating normal earnings, providing households with average purchasing power.

    • Stable staple food prices, normal income-generating activities, and improving incomes among pastoral households will keep household food insecurity at Minimal levels (IPC Phase 1) through December, particularly with the upcoming harvests beginning in October. 

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

     PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    National

    The good rebound in rainfall since the end of July helped spur crop planting activities, particularly in the north-central and northern reaches of the country. Farmers in some areas used short-cycle seed varieties recommended by extension services due to late planting.

    Reduced supply of locally grown crops, with erratic rainfall in major production zones for cereals and pulses in the central reaches of the country, is responsible for lower inventories on retail markets compared with July, and slight price increases. Availability of imported food commodities remains favorable.

    Livestock prices have increased by more than 10 percent since last month in response to a growing demand.  The tightening of supply is keeping the price of meat significantly higher than normal.

     

    The reported continued use of long-cycle crops could reduce output in some areas due to the photoperiodic reactions of certain plant species and the failure of certain crops to fully mature, particularly those planted in late July.

    The good rebound in rainfall since the second week of July is helping to promote the release of stocks, improving supplies which would otherwise normally tighten during the lean season.

    The expected growth of demand, particularly for sheep, for the upcoming celebration of Tabaski will drive livestock prices on markets around the country up further. In light of security improvements, livestock imports from Mali should help to temper additional price increases.


    Projected Outlook through October 2013

    Consistent with weather forecasts, regular rainfall activity occurred throughout the country during the past month. In general, rainfall totals were normal to above-normal, except in the central reaches of the country and localized areas of the south, which are still showing slight rainfall deficits. Increased rainfall accumulation has helped spur crop planting activities, particularly in central and northern crop-producing areas where planting rates are favorable. The progression of crop growth and development points to average to good harvests in all parts of the country in spite of the small lags reported in central and southern areas. A number of farmers chose to use short-cycle varieties of peanut and cereal seeds on the advice of extension agents in order to minimize any losses as a result of these delays. However, the progress of the growing season in the Louga region is far behind schedule, where crop planting activities are still underway. The first harvests of green maize and peanut crops are already in progress in Kaolack, Kolda, and Sediou, where the lean season is winding down. The good levels of new pasture growth should help improve the physical condition of livestock and milk production, which resumed in the course of the second dekad of July. However, the continuing heavy rainfall activity is causing flooding problems in Zinguechor, Dakar, Thiès, and Fatick, severely damaging homes in these areas.

    Confidence fueled by the rebound in good rainfall will help encourage farmers in crop-producing areas to dispose of their stocks of locally grown crops, maintaining average cereal availability and mitigating any additional price increases for local crops. The availability of off-season rice and imports will continue to bolster household food availability. Cereal supplies on markets around the country are sufficient to meet consumer demand.

    Markets supply of regular broken rice, the main cereal consumed by Senegalese households, remains favorable in markets across the country. In general, prices for this commodity remain stable, still ­­eight percent lower than in July of last year, and five percent below the five-year average. On the whole, prices have been stable since June, except in Kedougou, Matam, and Tamba, where they are up slightly by approximately two percent. Demand is up and supplies are down on livestock markets with the reduced volume of Malian imports and the hassle and high cost of shipping animals to retail markets. The approximate 10 percent increase in cattle prices, partially responsible for the approximate 20 percent jump in the price of meat between July and August, will be sustained by demand for the upcoming celebration of Tabaski in October. However, these price trends are being tempered with the improvement in kill rates in slaughterhouses, where prices have dropped by approximately 10 percent.

    The normal availability and level of income-generating activities and sources of food for poor households has provided households across the country with average food access during this year’s lean season. Ongoing crop maintenance activities are serving as sources of food and income-earning opportunities for poor households in agropastoral areas. Lucrative livestock prices, fueled by demand for the upcoming celebration of Tabaski, will continue to improve terms of trade for goats/millet from the standpoint of pastoralists, who are profiting from the recovery of livestock and milk production. Conditions during the lean season in agropastoral areas will improve with the availability of famine foods, fresh green maize crops, and wild plant foods by late August or early September. The main October harvest, which is expected to be average with the improvement in rainfall conditions and the control of crop pests, will mark the end of the lean season and help ensure plentiful household food stocks and market supplies of food crops at lower prices, strengthening the food access of poor households. The normal performance of income-generating activities, the absence of any major market anomalies, and the expected average harvest based on current harvest forecasts should keep food insecurity at Minimal levels (IPC Phase 1). However, flood-stricken households impacted by property losses will have difficulty rebuilding their livelihood assets and adequately meeting their food needs. As a result, food security conditions for these households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

    Figures Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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