Minimal food insecurity expected through September

• Average household stocks, normal livelihood strategies, and low prices for imported broken rice will help to maintain Minimal (IPC 2.0 Phase 1) food insecurity through September.

Due to a good harvest of both local cereals (maize, millet, and sorghum) and food cash crops (groundnuts and cowpeas), many producers prioritized sale of their cash crops during the harvest time, delaying the start of the cereal marketing season until the first quarter of 2013. In particular, the liberalization of the groundnut market in Senegal created additional competition among buyers and high demand for groundnuts in neighboring countries led to unusually high prices of 10-25 percent above last year and about 40 percent above the five-year average. Terms of trade for groundnut producers to imported broken rice in March was about 0.9 kg imported broken rice/kg groundnut compared to 0.7 kg imported rice/kg groundnut at harvest time  and 0.5 kg imported rice/kg groundnut as compared to the five-year average.

Local cereal prices are generally about 10-25% above average nationwide. However, incomes (as measured by the proxy for agricultural labor) have generally increased more or less in step with prices of basic staples.

In March, the prices of imported broken rice, a widely consumed staple in Senegal, remained 30 percent below average, and household purchasing power for imported rice is higher than average. National stocks of imported broken rice are reportedly average and the high probability of stable prices through September suggests normal access to this staple food by the majority of households.

In April, the livestock supply is average to below average and good prices continue to provide incomes 7 percent higher than last year. On average, selling a sheep provides 169kg of imported broken rice in March compared to about 140 kg last year. Livestock prices will likely remain stable through June as higher than average household cereal stocks will delay the normal seasonal sales of animals for food purchase, and given the reduced flows of livestock from Mali compared to normal. Prices are likely to increase during the Ramadan period when the demand for meat is important and will remain high during the July-September period as grass will be available for animals, leading to less local supply in addition to that from Mali. The terms of trade for livestock/imported broken rice will remain favorable to pastoralists due to normal animal prices and decreasing prices of imported broken rice.

Seasonal forecasts issued in April for the 2013 cropping season by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts suggest below-average rainfall over the Gambia and in the West for the start of the season April-June with climatology thereafter. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration forecast suggests above-average rainfall from the centre to the south of the country for April-June and May-July and in the south in June-August. IRI does not report a significant signal for either above or below average over Senegal for the 2013 rainy season. Given the lack of a convergence of evidence, FEWS NET will assume average rainfall distribution and totals for 2013.

Off-season harvests of vegetables, maize, and sweet potato are average to above average. The third-season harvest of irrigated rice in the Senegal River Valley in April and June will likely be normal to above normal due to high water levels for irrigation. The good household stocks resulting from the recent good harvests, low prices for imported broken rice, and average-to-good incomes from normal livelihood activities will continue to allow poor market dependent households to access essential food and non-food needs. Households will likely face Minimal (IPC 2.0 Phase 1) food insecurity through September 2013.