Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• Above-average food availability from own crop production, average incomes from agricultural and nonagricultural labor work, and average to below-average cereal prices will provide favorable conditions for poor households to access food to cover their basic needs. As a result, the majority of households will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity between November 2015 and March 2016.

• The maintenance of groundnut producer prices at the same levels as last year (at 200 FCFA/kg) and 6 percent above the five-year average, in addition to measures taken by the government to support groundnut marketing activities this year, have greatly benefited groundnut producers. Average to above-average agricultural incomes which resulted will enable households to satisfy their food needs until October 2016.

• Currently, due to their own crop production and community support, poor households affected by floods between July and September 2015 in the Dakar, Fatick, Kaolack, Saint Louis, and Matam zones are able to access food. However, with their earlier than normal depletion of food stocks due to below-average crop production, these households will be unable to meet their food needs and at the same time rebuild their livelihoods without engaging in atypical coping strategies starting in March 2016. As a result, they will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity.

• Despite nationally above-average crop production, localized zones saw below-average cereal harvests, particularly in the departments of Matam, Kanel, Raneyrou, Linguere, and Louga. A longer than usual dependence on markets due to an earlier than normal depletion of food stocks will cause households in these zones to intensify their labor work, switch to less preferred food, and reduce their non-food expenditures during the upcoming lean season. As a result, they will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity starting in June 2016.

  For more detailed analysis, see the Remote Monitoring Update for October 2015.