The season is progressing well with mostly average to above-average rainfall over the Sahel, except the far southern Burkina Faso, Northern Ghana, and Northwestern and Southeastern Nigeria which experienced long dry spells

• The Intertropical Front (ITF) continued its northward ascent in the eastern part of the Sahel and is above its normal position. At the same time, it reached its normal position across the western part of the Sahel during the first dekad of August 2024.
• Seasonal rainfall has been mostly average to above-average, over most of the Sahel. However, localized areas in northwestern Ghana, south Burkina Faso, northwest Nigeria, southern Chad, and north of the Central Africa Republic, experienced delayed planting or sowing.
• From late July to early August, long dry spells were observed in the far southern Burkina Faso, Upper East and West and Northern regions of Ghana, and Western and Southern Nigeria.
• Severe flooding across West Africa and the Sahel in mid-August 2024 has impacted croplands, particularly in Nigeria, Chad, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Cameroon.

• The Intertropical Front (ITF) continued progressing in its northward ascent and is close to its northernmost position. It was located north of its average position from 10°E to 25°E and around the average position from 10°W to 10°E during the first dekad of August 2024. Its dekadal average position during the first dekad of August varied between 19.5°N over Mali and Mauritania, which was below the climatological position by 0.2 degrees, and 20.0°N in eastern Chad, which was above the long-term average position by 2.3 degrees (Figure 1). This has generally resulted in slight northerly shifts of rainfall patterns, above-average rainfall across the northern parts of the monitored zone, and below-average rainfall across the more southern zones.
• Seasonal cumulative rainfall (Figure 2) has been average to above-average over most of the Sahel, though with some slight deficits over localized areas. It has been below-average over the Sudano Guinean and Bimodal zones with some localized areas of average to above-average (around the Mali-Guinea border, Mali-Cote d’Ivoire border, and Chad and Central African Republic border). However, from 3rd dekad of July to 1st dekad of August 2024, severe rainfall deficits with long dry spells of more than 2 weeks affected (Figures 3 and 4):
  • Upper West and East, and Northern regions of Ghana;
  • Far Southern Burkina Faso (Noumbiel province);
  • Northwestern and Southeastern Nigeria. 

There have been significant negative impacts on crop growth, particularly for maize, rice, and sorghum in Adamawa, Taraba, Niger, and Kaduna states in Nigeria.

As of mid-August 2024, severe flooding across the West Africa region has impacted croplands, particularly in northern Nigeria and several other zones. In Nigeria, erratic rainfall between July and August led to flooding in northern states such as Bauchi, Gombe, Yobe, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Sokoto, and Zamfara. Similarly, Burkina Faso, particularly in regions like Hauts Bassins, Gorom-Gorom, and Boucle du Mouhoun, experienced damage mainly to housing and roads, with less severe impacts on crops. Cameroon also faced localized flooding in several districts, notably in Diamaré, Mayo Sava, Logone et Chari, Mayo Kani, and Mayo Danay. In Niger, flooding has affected approximately 4,647 hectares of cropland, while in Mali, about 113,619 hectares have been impacted. Nigeria recorded the most extensive cropland flooding, with approximately 204,804 hectares affected, followed by Chad with 184,912 hectares. These figures were sourced from the ADAM (Advanced Disaster Analysis and Mapping) by the World Food Program.

• According to CHIRPS-GEFS, during the next two weeks, the forecast 15-day total is wetter than average across Sahel; and drier than average along the Gulf of Guinea coast.
• The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) Lead Center Multi-Model Ensemble, and the C3S (Copernicus Climate Change Service) seasonal forecasts (September-October- November) generally predict average to above-average seasonal rainfall conditions over most of the region except Northeastern Nigeria (NMME). However, models forecast below-average rainfall over the coastal parts of Ghana, Togo, Benin, southeastern Nigeria, and southwestern Cameroon, except Southwestern Nigeria, and Northwestern and Northern (Adamawa/North) regions of Cameroon.
• According to the NMME streamflow forecasts, generally, average to above-average river flows are expected across major rivers in West Africa, including the Niger River, Logone, Komadougou Yobé, and Volta Rivers, leading to a high risk of localized flooding, particularly in the August-October period.