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- The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues its southward retreat slightly slower than normal (Figure 1).
- Seasonal rainfall has been mostly average to above average over most of the Sahelian band (Figure 2).
- According to PREGEC, cereal production in West Africa and the Sahel for the 2025–2026 agropastoral season is expected to be slightly higher than last year and the last five-year average.
Figure 1
Source: NOAA/CPC
- By the second dekad of October 2025, the Intertropical Front (ITF) shifted southward along most of its length compared to its previous position. It was located slightly (0.4 degrees) north of its climatological position across the entire region. Its dekadal average position ranged from 15.0°N over Mali and Mauritania to 13.3°N in eastern Chad (Figure 1).
- Seasonal cumulative rainfall anomaly from April 1 to October 20, 2025 (Figure 2) has been near-average over most of the Sahelian and Sudano-Guinean region. However, localized areas of eastern Mauritania, southern and western Mali, northwestern Niger, central-western Liberia, central part of Cote d’Ivoire, central-eastern Ghana, central Togo, central Benin, central-western, southern and central-eastern Nigeria, southern Cameroon, and southeastern and northern Central African Republic experienced seasonal rainfall deficits ranging from moderate to severe.
Figure 2
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
- Analysis of the cumulative rainfall for September 2025 reveals periods of moderate to severe rainfall deficits and short to long dry spells in eastern Senegal, southern and eastern Mauritania, parts of eastern Mali, localized areas in southern and eastern Niger and northeastern Chad (Figure 3). However, these end-of-season dry spells did not negatively affect crop development, as soil moisture levels remained sufficient to meet crop water requirements in the region.
Figure 3
Source: USGS/FEWSNET
- Since July 2025, heavy rainfall has led to flooding, which resulted in flooded croplands in localized areas of the subregion, particularly along parts of the Sahel, including Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, and Chad.
- According to mid-September PREGEC (Regional Mechanism for the Prevention and Management of Food Crises), the 2025–2026 agropastoral campaign cereal production forecasts for West Africa and the Sahel range from 78 to 88 million metric tons. This would represent a 1% increase from last year but a 2% increase compared to the last five-year average for the lower scenario. For the higher scenario, assuming a favorable end of the season, cereal production could increase by 14% compared to the previous season and by 16% compared to the last five-year average.
- According to the monthly forecasts from NOAA-CPC, CHC-UCSB and WMO (World Meteorological Organization), below-average to average rainfall is expected across the Sudano-Guinean and bimodal zones through the end of November 2025.
- According to the FAO Locust Watch, forecasts through mid-November 2025 indicate that summer breeding will end in Chad, Niger, and Mali, but will continue in Mauritania. New groups are expected to form in Mauritania, and possibly in Mali, Niger, and Chad.
Source: FEWS NET
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. West Africa Seasonal Monitor October 30, 2025: Favorable rainfall conditions during the rainy season over the Sahel, though with some deficits over localized areas, 2025.
FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.