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- The Inter-Tropical Front (ITF) moved northward along most of its length, except in northern Chad where it moved southward compared to its previous position, but is still well north of its climatological position throughout the Sahel. This indicates a late end to the season.
- Seasonal rainfall has been mostly average to above-average, over most of the Sahel, and the rainfall in September has raised hopes for a positive seasonal outcome.
- September dry spells are observed in western Mauritania, northern Senegal, northwestern Ghana, and the bimodal zone.
- To date, above-average flooding has been observed in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, northeastern and northwestern Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and the Central African Republic. As of mid-September, the wet conditions resulted in flooded cropland over many parts of the region, including in Mali (544,172 hectares), Burkina Faso (89,277 hectares), Niger (57,731 hectares), Chad (647,890 hectares), Nigeria (727,250 hectares), Cameroon (91,123 hectares), and the Central African Republic (743 hectares).
- The Inter-Tropical Front (ITF) moved northward along most of its length, except in northern Chad where it moved southward compared to its previous position. It is located north of its climatological position throughout the Sahel. Its dekadal average position during the second dekad of September 2024 varied between 20.9°N over Mauritania and Mali, which was above the climatological position by 3.0 degrees, and 17.0°N in northern Chad, which was above the long-term average position by 1.5 degrees (Figure 1).
- Overall, average to above-average cumulative rainfall was observed over most of the Sahel including Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, northern Nigeria, far north Cameroon, and Chad while average to below-average cumulative rainfall was observed over Western Mauritania, the major part of Senegal, and The Gambia, and over the Sudano-Guinea and bimodal zones in Guinea Bissau, Western Guinea, southern Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Gulf of Guinea countries (Figure 2). The favorable temporal distribution effectively mitigated the adverse impacts of the deficits observed from mid-July to mid-August, which were predominantly mild in the few affected areas.
- Rainfall during the first two dekads of September has been mostly average to above-average and well-distributed throughout the Sahel, with a few exceptions. The areas most affected by combined rainfall deficits and dry spells (not more than 10 days) include western Mauritania, northern Senegal, northwestern Ghana, and the bimodal zone (Figures 3 & 4).
- From July to date, widespread flooding has impacted croplands across the Sahel, this has been observed in northern Cameroon, Chad, and northeastern (Komadougou Yobé River) and northwestern (Sokoto River) Nigeria, Niger, and Mali.
Figure 1
Source: NOAA/CPC
Figure 2
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Figure 3
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Figure 4
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
- According to CHIRPS-GEFS, the forecast 15-day total rainfall is average across the Sahel with above-average rainfall over Senegal, the Gambia, and Western Mali; and wetter than average rainfall along the Gulf of Guinea coast, except eastern Liberia, south Cote d’Ivoire and southwestern Ghana in the bimodal zone.
- The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) Lead Center Multi-Model Ensemble, and the C3S (Copernicus Climate Change Service) seasonal forecasts predict average to above-average rainfall through October over most of the Sahel.
- According to the NMME streamflow forecasts, generally average to above-average river flows are expected across major rivers in West Africa, including the Niger River, Logone, Komadougou Yobé, Sokoto River, and Volta Rivers, leading to high risks of localized flooding, particularly in the August-October period.
- A late end to the main rainy season and generally wet conditions may favor localized pest outbreaks. Localized locust breeding could occur in October, in particular in northwest Mauritania, northern Mali and Niger, and northeast Chad.
Source: FEWS NET
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. West Africa Seasonal Monitor October 4, 2024: Favorable September rainfall improves production prospects in the Sahel, 2024.
FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.