Seasonal Monitor

Despite a late start, cumulative rainfall in the Sahel is mostly average to above-average

October 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The southward retreat of Intertropical Front (ITF) continues in a timely manner, which augurs a timely end of season in the region.

  • Despite long dry spells of over 15 days observed at the beginning (June-July) and toward the end (September) of the season in the Sahelian zone, crops will reach full maturity over most of the Sahelian zone in late September-early October.

  • Very severe September dryness affected areas in Mali and Niger are likely to suffer from crop pest attacks.

  • Persisting dryness in the area extending from Far North Cameroon to northern Chari Baguirmi in Chad is likely to affect crops and pastures performance.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

  • The ITF continues its southward retreat and is located between 15.4 degrees of latitude north in eastern Chad and 19.5 degrees in Mauritania as of the second dekad of September. It is at or close to its climatological position over the whole region (Figure 1).
  • The end of the season in the Sahelian zone is nearing and the ITF being at its climatological position suggests the season end will be on time.   It also means crops will reach maturity over most places in the Sahelian zone.
  • Severe dryness in September has affected the Mopti region in Mali, part of Tillaberi, Tahoua and Maradi regions in Niger (Figure 2).  The southwestern part of the region of Mopti and the northeastern part of Segou in Mali and the Maradi region in Niger are, in addition to severe rainfall deficit, also affected by long dry spells of over 15 days.  The region of Tahoua only experienced rainfall severe deficits without dry spells.
  • September dryness normally creates favorable conditions for crop pest outbreaks.  Therefore, dryness affected areas of Mali and Niger are likely to suffer from crop pest attacks.
  • The seasonal cumulative rainfall from May 1st to September 25 has been above average over most of the region.  However, negative impact of dryness on crop and pasture development over areas where dryness has persisted for a very long time such as Far North Cameroon and Lake Chad is expected.

FORECASTS

  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA-CPC, no rainfall in the Sahelian zone.  This means that the season will end in the Sahelian by early October.
  • The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) monthly forecast for October generally predict  below average rainfall over the Guinean and Sudano-Guinean zones.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics