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- The Inter-Tropical Front (ITF) moved southward along its entire length compared to its previous position, but is still well north of its climatological position throughout the Sahel. This indicates a late end to the season.
- Seasonal rainfall has been mostly average to above-average, over most of the Sahel.
- Floods have been observed in almost all river basins of the region.
- According to mid-September PREGEC, cereal production declines are anticipated in some countries including Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Mauritania, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone. This is mainly due to the fact that the start of the rainy season was late to normal in some areas of the Sahel and West Africa. Additionally, the establishment of rain-fed crops experienced significant disruptions, primarily due to the persistence of long dry spells observed in May, June, July and August in several localities across the region. Given the heavy rainfall recorded this season, crop fungal and bacterial diseases, flooded hectares of farmland were also observed in most countries.
- The Inter-Tropical Front (ITF) moved southward along its entire length compared to its position the previous dekad. Despite this, it is located north of its climatological position throughout the Sahel indicating a late end to the season. The ITF dekadal average position during the third dekad of September 2024 varied between 18.9°N across its western (10°W-10°E) portion, which was above the climatological position by 2.2 degrees, and 16.7°N in eastern (20°E-35°E) portion, which was above the long-term average position by 2.3 degrees (Figure 1).
- The seasonal rainfall (Figure 2) has been generally average to above-average and well distributed over most of the Sahel with the exception of western Mauritania and northern Senegal, where seasonal rainfall has been below-average. These rainfall deficits are not expected to negatively affect crop performance due to the prevailing satisfactory soil moisture conditions.
- The analysis of the sub-seasonal rainfall accumulations reveals periods of severe rainfall deficits and/or long dry spells (not more than 10 days) over northern Senegal, western Mauritania, upper west and east, and northern regions of Ghana, far southern Burkina Faso, and northwestern and southeastern Nigeria, from late July to early August (Figure 3). However, the rainfall conditions have improved over the Sahel due to the average to above-average rainfall observed in September (Figure 4).
- From July through October, widespread flooding has impacted croplands across the Sahel, this has been observed in northern Cameroon, Chad, and northeastern (Komadougou Yobé River) and northwestern (Sokoto River) Nigeria, Niger, and Mali. In Senegal, as of October 2024, many areas along the Senegal River in the north and east of the country remain submerged despite no recent rains received, and more than 1,000 hectares of crops have been damaged in Tambacounda, Bakel, Matam, and Saint-Louis regions located along the east of the country. In Mali, heavy rainfall and flooding this season have resulted in crop losses and 544,172 hectares of crops were flooded as of September. Flooding continued to impact several regions in early October, including Bamako, Ségou, Gao, Mopti, and Koulikoro. As of 21-October 2024, in Nigeria, 194,637 hectares of cultivated farmland were affected by the flooding. The most affected Nigerian Local Government Areas (LGA) are Shira (45,000 ha), Lau (38,495 ha), Mokwa (17,575 ha) and Ndokwa East (13,300 ha). As of mid-September, 647,890 hectares of farmland in Chad and 57,731 hectares in Niger were affected by flooding.
- According to mid-September PREGEC, the 2024-2025 agropastoral campaign cereal production forecasts for West Africa and the Sahel range between 68.5 and 80 million metric tons, excluding the productions from Senegal and Liberia. This would represent a 7% decrease compared to last year, but a 9% increase compared to the five-year average for the lower scenario. For the higher scenario, assuming a good end to the season, cereal production could increase by 9% compared to the previous season and by 12% compared to the five-year average. At this stage, cereal production declines are anticipated in some countries including Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Mauritania, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone.
Figure 1
Source: NOAA/CPC
Figure 2
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Figure 3
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Figure 4
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
- According to CHIRPS-GEFS, the forecast 15-day (24 October–07 November 2024) total rainfall is wetter than average along the Gulf of Guinea coast, with the exception of northern Ghana, central Togo, Benin, and Nigeria, where the rainfall is below average. Also, this forecast indicates that the rainy season over the Sahel will end by early November.
- According to the NMME streamflow forecasts, generally average to above average river flows are expected across major rivers in West Africa, including the Niger River, Logone, Komadougou Yobé, Sokoto River, and Volta Rivers, leading to a high risk of localized flooding, particularly in the August-October period.
Source: FEWS NET
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. West Africa Seasonal Monitor November 8, 2024: Favorable agroclimatic conditions for crops in the Sahel due to average to above-average rainfall, 2024.
FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.