West Africa

Seasonal Monitor

Mostly normal start of season with average to above-average, well distributed rainfall

May 2020
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IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Key Messages

  • The onset of the March to July long season rains occurred normally in early March in the bi-modal zone and has been gradually expanding northward to reach parts of the southern Sahelian zone in late April.

  • The bi-modal zone and the southern part of the Sudanian-Guinean zone received mostly well distributed above average rainfall in April, resulting in favorable conditions for crop growth and development.

  • Given the favorable medium-term forecast, sowing/planting is expected to expand northward into the Sudanian-Sahelian zone, as usual, in May and June.

Update on Seasonal Progress

ITF position at the third dekad of April : Below average
Figure 1.

ITF position at the third dekad of April

Source: 
USGS/FEWS NET
April total rainfall estimate (RFE) in mm: normal rainfall across the bi-modal zone
Figure 2.

April total rainfall estimate (RFE) in mm

Source: 
USGS/FEWS NET
Rainfall estimate (RFE) anomaly compared to the 2009-2018 mean: Mostly above average throughout the region
Figure 3.

Rainfall estimate (RFE) anomaly compared to the 2009-2018 mean

Source: 
USGS/FEWS NET
  • The Intertropical Front (ITF) is the leading edge of the monsoon system that brings rain to West Africa during summer.  During the past month the ITF’s northward migration has been generally lagging but very close to its climatological position (Figure 1). It was positioned between 10.0 at 25 degrees of longitude East and 12.8 degrees of latitude at 5 degrees of longitude East in late April.
  • The region has received mostly above average rainfall (Figure 2 and Figure 3).  As a result, moisture conditions have been adequate and favorable for the development of planted crops over of the bi-modal and Sudanian-Guinean zones where rainfall is ongoing.
  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA/CPC, rainfall is expected to continue expanding northward normally and no significant dry spell is expected within the next two weeks.  The ITF is expected to progress at a normal pace in its northward migration during this time period.

Forecasts

West Africa seasonal calendar In the North, Main season cultivation is from mid-May to mid-August. Main harvest is from mid-August to January. Off-season harvest is from January to April. Livestock migration south to north is from mid-March to June. Live
SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR
Source: 
FEWS NET
  • The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast for the next several three-month periods (June-August, July-September and August-October) all generally predict average to above average seasonal rainfall conditions over most of the region.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

Region Contact Information

Email: fews.west@fews.net

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics