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The season is progressing well with mostly average to above average and well distributed rainfall

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • West Africa
  • June 29, 2022
The season is progressing well with mostly average to above average and well distributed rainfall

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  • Key Messages
  • UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS
  • FORECASTS
  • Key Messages
    • The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues its northward ascent.   It is now north of its climatological position over most of the region.

    • Localized areas in Nigeria and Burkina Faso experienced delayed planting/sowing.  However, given the optimistic seasonal forecast this is not expected to affect the season’s outcome.

    • The Sudanian-Guinean zone received mostly well distributed and above-average rainfall in May, resulting in continued favorable conditions for crop growth and development.

    • Given the favorable medium-term forecast, sowing/planting is expected to expand northward into the northern part of the Sahelian zone as usual.


    UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS
    • The Intertropical Front (ITF) has been progressing in its northward ascent.  As of the second dekad of June, it is located between 15.1 and 17.5 degrees of latitude north, north of its climatological position over most of the region (Figure 1).  
    • The combined estimated and forecast rainfall (Figure 2) indicates that from April 21st to July 5th most the region is expected to be over average rainfall conditions.
    • Generally sowing/planting has been early to on-time over most of the Sudanian-Guinean zone and the southern part of the Sahelian zone.  However, delayed planting/sowing of up to 4 dekads have been observed over some relatively small areas in the southern parts of the states of Borno, Katsina, Zamfara and Kebbi in Nigeria and areas in southeastern and southwestern Burkina Faso (Figure 3). Given favorable rainfall forecasts, delayed crops in these areas will likely receive enough rainfall to reach maturation.
    • The Guinean-Sudanian and bimodal zones have received mostly above average and well distributed rainfall throughout the last couple of months.  As a result, overall moisture conditions have been adequate and favorable for good crop growth and development leading to high expectations for a good conclusion of the main season, around mid-July.

    FORECASTS
    • According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA-CPC, and CHC-UCSB rainfall is expected to continue expanding northward normally and no significant dry spells are expected within the next few weeks.  This forecast augurs a timely sowing/planting in the northern part of the Sahelian zone at the end of the main season by early July.
    • The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast for the next several three-month periods (July-September and August-October) all generally predict average to above average seasonal rainfall conditions over most of the region.
    Figures

    Figure 1

    Source: NOAA/CPC

    Figure 2

    Source: CHC-UCSB

    Figure 3

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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