Seasonal Monitor

The season is progressing well with mostly average to above-average and well distributed rainfall

June 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Key Messages

  • The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues its northward migration but has been slower than usual during the month of May.

  • The Sudanian-Guinean zone received mostly well distributed above average rainfall in May, resulting in continued favorable conditions for crop growth and development.

  • The end of the long season (March to July) rains in the bi-modal zone is nearing and the harvest is expected to be average to above average

  • Given the favorable medium-term forecast, sowing/planting is expected to expand northward into the northern part of the -Sahelian zone as usual.

Update on Seasonal Progress

  • The Intertropical Front (ITF) has been progressing northward and is now located between 13-14 degrees of latitude north, slightly behind its climatological position during the last dekad of May.  Despite a lag of about 2 degrees over most of the region, the ITF progressed for short periods of times past its average dekadal position, resulting in light to moderate rainfall in locations north of its current dekadal position.  As a result, sowing activities have been possible in the southern part of the Sahelian zone.
  • The Guinean and Sudanian-Guinean zones where the growing season is well under way, have received mostly above average (Figure 1) and well distributed rainfall (Figure 2).  As a result, moisture conditions have been adequate and favorable for continued growth and development of crops over the bi-modal and Sudanian-Guinean zones where rainfall is ongoing.
  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from CHC/UCSB, rainfall is expected to continue expanding northward normally and no significant dry spells are expected within the next two weeks.  This forecast combined with average to above average and well distributed rainfall observed so far favors an average to above average harvest in the Guinean and the southern part of the Sudanian-Guinean zones.

Forecasts

  • The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast for the next several three-month periods (June-August, July-September and August-October) all generally predict average to above average seasonal rainfall conditions over most of the region.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics