A significant advancement of the ITF positively affected the agropastoral areas of Mali, Niger and Chad

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Key Messages

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

FORECASTS

Key Messages

The ITF (Intertropical Front) made a significant advancement in comparison with its late May position, which resulted in mostly above average rainfall conditions over the pastoral areas of Mali, Niger and Chad and a significant improvement of agrometeorological conditions over, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, western Mali and southern Senegal (Figure 1 and Figure 2).
Continued average to above average seasonal rainfall with good space and time distribution before and during the first two dekads of June were positive for long season crops (March to July) in the bi-modal zone.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

The ITF’s northward migration continues; it made a significant advancement particularly in its eastern portion over Niger and Chad where it is positioned between 16.5 and 17.0 degrees of latitude north. It is now north of its climatological position (Figure 3) except for a small portion between 0 and 10 degrees of longitude west where it is slightly (less than half a degree) behind.
Rainfall amounts during the first two dekads of June were mostly average to above average over the whole region resulting in the improvement of agrometeorological conditions of the western part of the region (Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Sierra Leone) and continued favorable conditions for crops and pastures for the rest of the region.
Rainfall analysis indicates continued adequate and favorable moisture conditions for planted crops in the region with the exception of Senegal and Mauritania where the season is yet to start. The end of the main season (March-July) in the bimodal zone will be next month and conditions are expected to be favorable until then.
According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA/CPC, rainfall is expected to continue expanding northward normally to cover Senegal on the western side and the southern part of the Saharan zone over Mali, Niger and Chad. No dry spell of any significance is expected within the next two weeks.

FORECASTS

The seasonal forecast from NOAA-NCEP for the next three-month periods (July-September, August-October, September-November and October-December) indicates higher chances for average to above average rainfall over most of the region.

Figures

Figure 1. Total rainfall estimate (RFE) in mm, 1st dekad of April to 2nd dekad of June

Greater rainfall recorded over the Gulf of Guinea countries while less the farther into the north and Sahelien region.

Source : USGS/FEWS NET

Figure 2. Rainfall estimate (RFE) anomaly compared to the 2007-2016 mean, 1st dekad of April to 2nd dekad of June

Most of West Africa is showing a average to slightly below-average rainfall anomaly according to RFE. Greater defecit is seen

Source : USGS/FEWS NET

Figure 3: ITF position at the second dekad of June 2018

The ITF is similar to the previous dekad and the average for this dekad in the west and farther north than the previous dekad

Source : NOAA/CPC

SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

West Africa seasonal calendar In the North, Main season cultivation is from mid-May to mid-August. Main harvest is from mid-

Source : FEWS NET

FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.