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The ITF (Intertropical Front) continued its northward migration and it was located at or slightly north of its climatological position in late May except over western Mali and Senegal where it was slightly behind. This has resulted in average to above average seasonal rainfall totals over most of the Sahel (Figure 1 and Figure 2).
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The end of the long season (March to July) rains in the bi-modal zone is nearing. Harvest is expected to be average to above average.
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In the Sudanian-Guinean zone crops are in favorable conditions following good rains recorded during the second half of May.
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A slight planting delay has been observed over Guinea and Sierra Leone but an early season start is likely over most of the central and eastern Sahel.
- The ITF’s northward migration continues and is positioned between 12.0 and 16.0 degrees of latitude north. In late May it is south of its climatological position only west of 7-8 degrees of longitude west with the lag reduced to less than a degree (Figure 3) compared to the couple of past dekads but it is at or slightly north of it east of this longitude.
- Total rainfall amounts (Figure 1) from the first dekad of April to the third dekad of May were mostly average to above average (Figure 2) over the Bi-modal zone and most of the Sudanian-Guinean and Sahelian zones. However, the western part of the Sudanian-Guinean zone (Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea Bissau) and that of the Sahelian zone (Senegal, western Mali and Mauritania) have been affected by severe rainfall deficits.
- Rainfall analysis indicates that moisture conditions have been generally adequate and favorable for the development of planted crops in:
- The Bi-modal zone where the end of season is nearing, and the harvest is expected to be at least average
- Most of the Sudanian-Guinean zone east of Guinea
- The Sahelian zone and particularly the southern agricultural area east of Mali
- Severe rainfall deficits (Figure 2) are not expected to have any significant effects on the season outcome over the affected areas:
- In Guinea and Sierra Leone area the deficits resulted in slight sowing/planting delays. However, since relief has already come and given the length of the growing period and the relatively large seasonal amount of rainfall the area receives, the observed delays are not expected to affect crops development.
- Also, no significant effects of the severe deficits over the few areas in the northern agro-pastoral part of the Sahelian zone (the region of Diffa in Niger, parts of Kanem region and Ouaddai, Wadi Firra and Batha Est regions in Chad) are expected on the agricultural and pastoral conditions because based on the crop calendar the season is yet to start.
- According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA/CPC, rainfall is expected to continue expanding northward normally and no dry spell of any significance is expected within the next two weeks.
Source : USGS/FEWS NET
Source : USGS/FEWS NET
Source : USGS/FEWS NET
Source : FEWS NET
FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.