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Mostly normal start of season with average or better, well distributed rainfall

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • West Africa
  • June 7, 2018
Mostly normal start of season with average or better, well distributed rainfall

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  • Key Messages
  • UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS
  • Key Messages
    • The ITF (Intertropical Front) continued its northward migration and it was located at or slightly north of its climatological position in late May except over western Mali and Senegal where it was slightly behind.  This has resulted in average to above average seasonal rainfall totals over most of the Sahel (Figure 1 and Figure 2).

    • The end of the long season (March to July) rains in the bi-modal zone is nearing.  Harvest is expected to be average to above average.

    • In the Sudanian-Guinean zone crops are in favorable conditions following good rains recorded during the second half of May.

    • A slight planting delay has been observed over Guinea and Sierra Leone but an early season start is likely over most of the central and eastern Sahel.


    UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

     

    Figures RFE rainfall estimates are 200-800mm along southern coast of West Africa and are 10-50mm in the southern reaches of the Sahel

    Figure 1

    Figure 1. Total rainfall estimate (RFE) in mm, 1st dekad of April to 3rd dekad of May

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    RFE rainfall estimate anomalies show severe deficit in the Gulf of Guinea countries into southern Mauritania, moderate and sl

    Figure 2

    Figure 2. Rainfall estimate (RFE) anomaly compared to the 2007-2016 mean, 1st dekad of April to 3rd dekad of May

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    The ITF is currently above the previous dekad location and also mostly near or above the dekadal average from 2003-2013.

    Figure 3

    Figure 3: ITF position at the third dekad of May 2018

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    West Africa seasonal calendar  In the North, Main season cultivation is from mid-May to mid-August. Main harvest is from mid-

    Figure 4

    SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

    Source: FEWS NET

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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