Seasonal Monitor

Mostly average to above average rainfall has allowed for on time to slightly early planting

June 2017

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In May the Intertropical Front (ITF) migrated northward faster than typical and has been located north of its climatological position, resulting in mostly above average rainfall over the region including most of the Sahelian zone.

  • Favorable rainfall during April and May led to timely or early planting over much of the region.

  • Agrometeorological conditions have generally been favorable since mid-March for normal development of planted crops over all areas where planting took place.

  • Given the favorable medium term forecast, sowing/planting is expected to normally continue northward into the Sudanian-Sahelian zone in June.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

  • The ITF’s northward migration started in early March and is now located 2 or 3 degrees of latitude north of its climatological position over West Africa, with the exception of a small portion in eastern Niger where it is located slightly south of its climatological position.
  • The faster than normal northward migration of the ITF resulted in above-average rainfall over the Sudanian-Sahelian zone with the exception of small areas in eastern Niger, the western part of the Sahelian zone in Chad and in southeastern Chad, which experienced severe rainfall deficits (Figure 2).  This good rainfall performance over most of the region, and particularly over the Sudanian-Sahelian zone, resulted in early sowing/planting and favorable conditions for crops.  In the aforementioned deficit areas, however, planting delays are possible.
  • Over the bi-modal zone and Sudanian-Guinean zones, where the growing season has been in progress for over 2 months, total rainfall amounts (Figure 1) from the first dekad of April to the third dekad of May are mostly average to above average (Figure 2).  Areas affected by below average rainfall, with deficits ranging from light to moderate, in these two zones include eastern Liberia, southern Cote d'Ivoire, and south-central Guinea.  However, deficits in these areas have been offset by a fair time distribution of rains, resulting in favorable conditions for crop development.
  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA/CPC, rainfall is expected to expand northward normally and will continue for the next two weeks without dry spells.  This forecast calls for above average rainfall in the Central and Eastern Sahelian zone, but the bi-modal zone is expected to be moderately dry.

FORECASTS

  • The seasonal forecast from NOAA-NCEP for the next three-month periods (June-August, July-September and August-October) calls for above average rainfall over most of the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea countries.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics