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- The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues its normal northward ascent, and remains above its climatological position (Figure 1).
- Seasonal cumulative precipitation is mostly below average across the region, with some localized areas receiving above-average amounts (Figures 2 & 3).
- In June, locust adult groups remained in Niger, while scattered adults were observed in Mauritania.
Figure 1
Source: NOAA/CPC
Figure 2
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
- The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues its normal northward progression and remains north of its climatological position along its entire length. Its dekadal average position during the second dekad of July varied between 19.4°N over the western (10°W-10°E) region, or about 0.8 degrees north of its climatological position, and 16.4°N in the eastern (20°E-35°E) region, or 0.1 degrees above the long-term average (Figure 1).
- Seasonal cumulative rainfall (Figure 2) has been below-average to average over most of the region. Moderate to severe deficits were observed from April 1 st to July 20th 2025, in northwestern and western Senegal, western and central Niger, northwestern Nigeria, eastern and southern Chad in the Sahelian band, central-western Nigeria, western and central Liberia, southwestern Côte d’Ivoire, southern Cameroon and in the SudanoGuinean and bimodal zones. However, it is still early in the season for these deficits to pose a concern for crop development in the Sahel.
- In other parts of the region, rainfall conditions are average to above-average. As of now, the onset of the rainy season has occurred across the Sahel and northern Sudano-Guinean zones, with some localized areas experiencing delays of one to four dekads. Additionally, in the Sudano-Guinean and Sahelian zones, crop water requirements are generally being met.
- Figure 3 shows that between 16th June and 15th July, the areas with severe rainfall deficits and dry spells of more than 11 days were limited to northwestern Senegal and northwestern Chad. Moreover, the combined estimated and forecasted rainfall from July 11th to August 5 th, 2025, indicates that significant relief is expected over many of the areas mentioned above (Figure 4). However, the rainfall deficit is expected to persist during this period in northwestern Senegal. This may be a potential concern for crop performance in that area and will be closely monitored over the coming few weeks.
- Regarding desert locust outbreaks, during June, adult groups remained in Niger, while scattered adults continued to be found in Mauritania.
Figure 3
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Figure 4
Source: CHC/UCSB
- According to the NMME precipitation forecasts, below-average rainfall is expected over the Gulf of Guinea, especially over Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, southern and Central Nigeria, and southern and central Cameroon. While the second rainy season from September to November is expected to be below average to average. Conversely, the main rainy season (May–October) is expected to be average to above-average over the Sahel, northern Cameroon, and the Central African Republic.
- According to the NMME-based streamflow (July–November 2025) and GloFAS streamflow (21 July– 01 September 2025) forecasts, there is a high likelihood of flooding along the upstream Niger River in Mali, Sokoto and Benue Rivers in Nigeria, and Logone and Chari Rivers in Chad, but average conditions along the downstream Niger and Komadougou Yobe Rivers in Nigeria. The coastal rivers in Gambia and Guinea-Bissau are likely to experience flooding in August. There is uncertainty about the timing and severity due to the delayed start of the season and the long-range nature of the forecast.
- According to the FAO Locust Watch, adult groups and small swarms from central Sahara may migrate towards Chad, Niger, Mali, and Mauritania. Summer breeding may increase in western Chad, northern Niger, northern Mali, and Mauritania.
Source: FEWS NET
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. West Africa Seasonal Monitor July 30, 2025: Mixed rainfall conditions across West Africa and the Sahel, with areas of above- and below-average rainfall, 2025.
FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.