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The Intertropical Front (ITF) continued its northward ascent, located north of its normal position during the 3rd dekad of June throughout the region.
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Sowing/planting continued to expand northward in June, resulting in mostly on time or earlier than normal planting.
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Drier than normal conditions are expected to prevail from mid-June to mid-July in and around Lake Chad area.
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Moisture conditions continued to be favorable for crop growth and development in the bimodal zone, increasing the chances for above-average harvest at the end of the major season in July.
- The Intertropical Front (ITF) has been progressing well in its northward ascent. It was located north of its average position throughout the region during the third dekad of June 2023. Its dekadal average position during the third dekad of June varied between 16.0°N over western Sudan or about 2° north of its climatological position and 20.2°N in northern Mali or 3° north of its climatological position.
- Seasonal cumulative rainfall (Figure 1) has been average to above-average over most of the region. Deficits during the 01 April-30 June 2023 period were mostly light to moderate and the affected areas were limited to southeastern and northwestern Nigeria, extreme southern Benin, eastern Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, and northwestern Cote d’Ivoire. These deficits, however, are not expected to have ill-effects on crops of any significance. In the Guinean-Sudanian and bimodal zones crop water requirements are met even under moderate deficits, and in the Sahelian zone it’s too early in the season for these deficits to be concerning.
- Figure 2 shows that in June the areas with moderate deficits and dry spells over 10 days were limited to small parts in northwestern Nigeria, and the Burkina Faso-Ghana border area. Furthermore, the combined estimated and forecast rainfall from June 21st to July 15th (Figure 3) indicates significant relief is expected over the aforementioned deficit areas. However, Figure 3 also shows rainfall deficits in an area extending from Lake Chad west into the Diffa region in Niger and northern Bornu and Yobe states in Nigeria. This is potentially concerning for crop performance, and will be closely monitored in the next few weeks.
- Overall, the 2023 growing season has been progressing well. The major season in the bimodal zone is ending in July and a good harvest is expected. Moisture conditions in the Guinean-Sudanian and the Sahelian zones have been adequate to meet crop requirements so far. Combined with the favorable seasonal rainfall forecasts, this is expected to be a good growing season.
Figure 1
Period: 1 April - 30 June 2023
Source: CHC/UCSB
Figure 2
Period: 1April - 30June 2023
Source: USGS/UCSB
Figure 3
Period: 21 June – 15 July 2023
Source: CHC/UCSB
- According to the short- and medium-term forecasts from NOAA-CPC and CHC-UCSB rainfall is expected to continue expanding northward normally and no significant dry spells are expected within the next few weeks. This forecast augurs a timely sowing/planting in the northern part of the Sahelian zone at the end of the main season by mid-July.
- The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) Lead Center Multi-Model Ensemble, and the C3S (Copernicus Climate Change Service) seasonal forecasts for the next several three-month periods (July-September and August-October) generally predict average to above-average seasonal rainfall conditions over most of the region.
FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.