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The season is progressing well with mostly average to above average and well-distributed rainfall

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • West Africa
  • July 28, 2022
The season is progressing well with mostly average to above average and well-distributed rainfall

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  • Key Messages
  • UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS
  • FORECASTS
  • Key Messages
    • The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues its northward ascent.   It is now between 16.5 and 19.2 degrees of latitude and north of its climatological position over most of the region.

    • Rainfall resumed in many Sahelian areas that have experienced moderate to severe rainfall deficits and/or delayed planting/sowing early in the season. The timely resumption of rainfall will allow for replanted crops to close their cycle by the end of the season and no negative impact of early season deficits are anticipated on crop performance.

    • Moisture conditions continue to be favorable for crop growth and development in July over the Sudanian-Guinean zone.

    • The maize harvest is in progress in the bimodal zone.  Considering the favorable agroclimatological conditions that have prevailed during the last three months, rainfall has been sufficient to support the normal development of main season crops.

    • Given the favorable medium-term forecast, sowing/planting is expected to expand northward into the northern part of the Sahelian zone as usual at the exception of northern Senegal/southwestern Mauritania where significantly long dry spells are expected.


    UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS
    • The Intertropical Front (ITF) has been progressing in its northward ascent.  As of the first dekad of July, it is located between 16.5 and 19.2 degrees of latitude north, north of its climatological position over most of the region.
    • Areas of the Sahelian zone that experienced significant rainfall deficits and delayed sowing/planting during the month of June, such as central Mali and Niger, received some relief as indicated by June 16-July 15 total rainfall anomaly and consecutive dry days (Figure 1, Figure 2).
    • Moderate to significant rainfall deficits have either persisted in some areas like in southern Niger and eastern Mali or affected other areas particularly northern Senegal & southwestern Mauritania, and southern Mali.  However, because these deficits have taken place early in the season and more relief is expected (Figure 3), no significant negative impact on crop development and the growing season outcome is expected. Sowing/planting will normally continue in the northern part of the Sahelian zone because of the expected rainfall situation improvement.
    • The Guinean-Sudanian and bimodal zones received mostly above average and well distributed rainfall throughout the last three months.  As a result, overall moisture conditions have been adequate and favorable for good crop growth and development. In the bimodal part where the main season has practically come to an end in mid-July and maize harvest is in progress, average to above average production is expected.

    FORECASTS
    • According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA-CPC, and CHC-UCSB rainfall is expected to continue expanding northward normally.  No significant dry spells are expected within the next few weeks at the exception of northern Senegal/southwestern Mauritania that according to SubX forecast is likely to experience significantly long dry spells in the next 30 days.  This latter area will be closely monitored.
    • The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast for the next several three-month periods (August-October and September-November) all generally predict average to above average seasonal rainfall conditions over the Sahelian region.
    Figures

    Figure 1

    Source: NOAA/CPC

    Figure 2

    Source: NOAA/CPC

    Figure 3

    Source: CHC-UCSB

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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