Seasonal Monitor

The season is progressing well with mostly average to above-average and well distributed rainfall

July 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues its northward migration.  After lagging for several dekads it gained momentum and caught up with its climatological position in most of the region.

  • The Sudanian-Guinean zone continued to receive mostly well distributed above average rainfall in June, with the exception of a small area of n north-central Cote d’Ivoire that suffered the combined effect of both below average rainfall and long dry spells (Figure 1 and Figure 2).

  • The bimodal zone received average rainfall during the long rainy season (March to July) which was positive for average crop production.

  • Due to the timely arrival of rains, sowing took place on time over most of the Sahelian zone by late June. The expected rain improvement in July will be favorable for areas that experienced dry spells in June to sow crops.

Update on Seasonal Progress

  • The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues its northward seasonal migration and is now located between 16-17 degrees of latitude north from Mali eastward where it is at its climatological position but between 14-16 degrees of latitude north over southeastern Mauritania and Senegal, where it is slightly behind its climatological position during the last dekad of June.
  • The southern part of the Sahelian zone has received mostly above average and well distributed rainfall (Figure 1 and Figure 2).  The northern part of the Sahel where the season has just started has received light to moderate rainfall during the second half of June, making sowing possible throughout the agricultural part of the Sahel.  However, over areas like southeastern Niger (the eastern part of Zinder and Diffa regions), and the Lake Chad region in Chad have received below average rainfall and suffered long dry spells (Figure 2).  Below average rainfall has also affected northwestern Niger, central Mali, southwestern Mauritania and western Senegal. 
  • The Sudanian-Guinean zone has also received average to above average and well distributed rainfall and except in north-central Cote d’Ivoire where both below average rainfall condition and long dry spells (Figure 1 and Figure 2) have occurred.  
  • From late March to early July the Guinean zone has received mostly above average and well distributed rainfall. 

Forecasts

  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from CHC/UCSB and from NOAA/CPC rainfall is expected to continue expanding northward normally and no significant dry spells are expected within the next two weeks.
  • The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast for the next two three-month periods (July-September and August-October) generally predict average to above average seasonal rainfall conditions over most of the region.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics