Continued average to above-average rainfall is providing good growing conditions

• Total seasonal rainfall is above-average over most of the region (Figures 1 and 2) with the exception of areas of limited extent in Guinea Bissau, Cote d'Ivoire and Southern Mali.

• Crop development is not expected to be adversely affected over the few rainfall deficit areas as these deficits are light.

• The medium-term forecast for the two weeks period 4-17 July  calls for drier than average conditions over an area covering Senegal, western Mali and southwest Mauritania but wetter conditions over eastern Burkina, northern Benin, Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and CAR.

• The Intertropical Front’s (ITF) northward migration continues and during the third dekad of June it is located north of its climatological position, and is currently over Mauritania and Mali, rather than its average position over Niger and western Chad, and slightly south of its climatological position in eastern Chad (Figure 4).  This has brought average to above-average rainfall to areas where the season is just starting, particularly Senegal and southwestern Mauritania. The second half of June has been characterized by fairly well distributed average to above average rainfall over most of the region.  This rainfall situation has resulted in :
  • Favorable conditions for crop and pasture development
  • Earlier than normal planting in the northernmost part of the agricultural zone (Figure 3).
  • Suitable conditions for locust breeding
• In the bi-modal area and the rest of the Guinean zone, the major season is nearing the end.  Dekadal rainfall analysis from the beginning of April to present indicates that the season has been generally characterized by slight deficits.  However, the light character of the deficits coupled with a fairly well distributed rainfall has resulted in adequate moisture to meet the crop requirements.  Therefore, crops have been developing well and an average to above average harvest is expected in late July and early August

According to NOAA/CPC’s short and medium-term forecasts, rainfall will continue to progress northward, as is seasonally normal. This forecast calls for moderate to heavy rains throughout the region for the next week (6-13 July) with no expected dry spells.
For the next several three month periods (July-September, August-October, and September-November), seasonal forecasts from the major meteorological centers (ECMWF and NOAA-NCEP) call for average to above-average rainfall over most of the region.