Seasonal Monitor

Continued average to above-average rainfall is providing good growing conditions

July 2017

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Total seasonal rainfall is above-average over most of the region (Figures 1 and 2) with the exception of areas of limited extent in Guinea Bissau, Cote d'Ivoire and Southern Mali.

  • Crop development is not expected to be adversely affected over the few rainfall deficit areas as these deficits are light.

  • The medium-term forecast for the two weeks period 4-17 July  calls for drier than average conditions over an area covering Senegal, western Mali and southwest Mauritania but wetter conditions over eastern Burkina, northern Benin, Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and CAR.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

  • The Intertropical Front’s (ITF) northward migration continues and during the third dekad of June it is located north of its climatological position, and is currently over Mauritania and Mali, rather than its average position over Niger and western Chad, and slightly south of its climatological position in eastern Chad (Figure 4).  This has brought average to above-average rainfall to areas where the season is just starting, particularly Senegal and southwestern Mauritania. The second half of June has been characterized by fairly well distributed average to above average rainfall over most of the region.  This rainfall situation has resulted in :
    • Favorable conditions for crop and pasture development
    • Earlier than normal planting in the northernmost part of the agricultural zone (Figure 3).
    • Suitable conditions for locust breeding
  • In the bi-modal area and the rest of the Guinean zone, the major season is nearing the end.  Dekadal rainfall analysis from the beginning of April to present indicates that the season has been generally characterized by slight deficits.  However, the light character of the deficits coupled with a fairly well distributed rainfall has resulted in adequate moisture to meet the crop requirements.  Therefore, crops have been developing well and an average to above average harvest is expected in late July and early August

FORECASTS

According to NOAA/CPC’s short and medium-term forecasts, rainfall will continue to progress northward, as is seasonally normal. This forecast calls for moderate to heavy rains throughout the region for the next week (6-13 July) with no expected dry spells.
For the next several three month periods (July-September, August-October, and September-November), seasonal forecasts from the major meteorological centers (ECMWF and NOAA-NCEP) call for average to above-average rainfall over most of the region.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics