Seasonal Monitor

The season is progressing well with mostly average to above-average and well distributed rainfall

August 27, 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues its northward migration and is at its climatological position over most of the region.

  • The first two dekads of August rainfall has been characterized by good time distribution and any deficits have been mostly light to moderate (Figure 1 and Figure 2).

  • The minor dry season in the bimodal zone has been drier than average (Figure 1).

Update on Seasonal Progress

  • The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues its northward seasonal migration and underwent a large advance during the first dekad of August and was positioned between 20 to 23 degrees north, about 2 to 3 degrees north of its climatological position east of longitude 5 degrees west.  During the second dekad of August it moved back to be around its climatological position east of north-central Mali and slightly south of it in the western part of north-central Mali and Mauritania.
  • During the first two dekads of August parts of the Sahelian zone received average to above average rainfall and heavy downpours resulted in river swelling and floods.  Many places in the region have experience flooding particularly along major rivers.  At the same time other parts of the Sahelian zone received below average rainfall.  However, most deficits ranged from light to moderate and rainfall time distribution was good over the entire zone (Figure 1 and Figure 2).  Areas affected by severe rainfall deficits included southwestern Mauritania, and northern and southwestern Senegal including the Gambia.
  • The western and eastern parts of the Sudanian-Guinean zone received mostly average to above average rainfall during the first two dekads of August period.  Areas affected by severe rainfall deficits included part of Ghana, western and eastern Nigeria and northern Cameroon (Figure 1 and Figure 2).  The western part of Sudanian-Guinean was also affected by poor rainfall time distribution during this period.  Dry spells of over 9 days were observed over western Liberia, northern Cote d’Ivoire, a large part of northern Ghana and most of the Sudanian-Guinean part of Nigeria and southern Cameroon.

Forecasts

  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from CHC/UCSB and from NOAA/CPC above average rainfall is expected over the Sahelian and Saharan zone and no significant dry spells are expected within the next two weeks.
  • The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast for the final two months of the season (September and October) generally predict climatology to increased chances for above average rainfall in September and climatology to an increased chance of below average rainfall in October.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics